If you want to know who is going to win the 2020 U.S. Presidential election then you need look no farther than the stock market. Let’s look at how the stock market is doing and 2020 U.S. Presidential odds.
If you want to know who is going to win the 2020 U.S. Presidential election then you need look no farther than the stock market. One of the best predictors of U.S. Presidential elections has been the U.S. stock market. Since 1984 the stock market has been 100% accurate in predicting who will be President. If you go back even farther the predictions are still very accurate, as the stock market has predicted the Presidential winner at a rate of 87% since 1928. Let’s look at how the stock market is doing and 2020 U.S. Presidential odds.
2020 U.S. Presidential Election Odds (BookMaker.eu)
Joe Biden -118
Donald Trump -106
Kamala Harris +9500
Mike Pence +32500
Hillary Clinton +32500
Nikki Haley +120000
Michelle Obama +85000
Andrew Cuomo +135000
Elizabeth Warren +185000
Kanye West +300000
Stock Market Proves Accurate
LPL financial chief market strategist Ryan Detrick said that the U.S. stock market has proven extremely reliable in predicting U.S. Presidential elections. You can forget about looking at all of the polls, as they have become very unreliable. A lot of people look at polls from the Washington Post and New York Times, but those newspapers are liberal papers that have proven to be unreliable. Even a site like Real Clear Politics has not proven to be accurate in predicting elections. Four years ago Real Clear Politics had Hillary Clinton winning easily against Donald Trump and we all know how that turned out. Real Clear Politics once again is relying on inaccurate national polls to predict the election. They have Joe Biden leading Trump by over 6 points. They also have Biden leading in battleground states by about 3 points. The Real Clear Politics numbers, just like almost all of the other polling numbers, are left leaning and inaccurate.
Detrick said that the stock market is the best predictor of U.S. Presidential elections. He said that the chart of the S&P 500’s performance in the three months leading up to the election is what you should look at. In the last month the S&P has gone up about 7%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average about 7% and the NASDAQ more than 9%.
A positive return over the three-month period leading up to the election signals the incumbent party is likely to win, while stock market losses over the same time period point to the challenger winning. Detrick did point out that this year is definitely unique. “The unique circumstances around this year’s pandemic seem to add plausibility that this could be the first time in almost 100 years that this signal may be wrong—especially if the stock market and economy continue to recover between now and Election Day,” Detrick said to the media.
The economy has been a very reliable predictor for U.S. Presidential elections, but this year is unlike any other. The U.S. economy was rolling along at historic levels before the pandemic, so it is hard to judge how people will grade Trump on the current economy. Normally when there is a recession the incumbent President loses, but this year is totally unique.
We are still two months away from Election Day and a lot can happen between now and November. Look at how much has changed in this world in just the last six months. The entire world reacted to the COVID-19 pandemic and economies around the world suffered. Perhaps a better way to term what happened is overreaction. Government officials listened to a few ill-informed so-called experts and locked down much of the world. That decision proved to be a major mistake, as lockdowns didn’t solve anything, but instead crushed businesses around the world. One of the few countries not to lockdown was Sweden and they are no worse off than the many countries that did. Recent research has shown that lockdowns have no real effect on the COVID-19 pandemic. What did happen is that officials around the world overreacted and created more of a problem with the lockdowns than the virus ever could have caused.
When you look at the latest 2020 U.S. Presidential odds you will notice that the odds are almost even. I said months ago that the odds were inaccurately favoring Joe Biden and that the value was on Trump. While some of the value is gone, there is still value on betting on Trump at the current number.
Check out 2020 U.S. Presidential odds at top online sportsbooks.
