Undefeated lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov (28-0, 8 KOs, 10 SUBs) will defend his title against Justin Gaethje (22-2, 19 KOs, 1 SUB) at UFC 254 on Saturday, October 24, 2020 at UFC Fight Island in Abu Dhabi, UAE. Let's look at UFC 254 picks.
- Location
- UFC Fight Island - Abu Dhabi, UAE
- Media Coverage
- Pay-Per-View, ESPN 2 and ESPN+
Undefeated lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov (28-0, 8 KOs, 10 SUBs) will his title and flawless record against action fighter Justin Gaethje (22-2, 19 KOs, 1 SUB) at UFC 254 on Saturday, October 24, 2020 at UFC Fight Island in Abu Dhabi, UAE. In the co-main event, former middleweight champion Robert Whittaker (21-5, 9 KOs, 5 SUBs) squares off against Jared Cannonier (13-4, 9 KOs, 2 SUBs) in a banger of a matchup. The card airs live on pay-per-view starting 2pm ET. Stay up to date with the latest money lines, prop bets and more with the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu. Let’s take a closer look at the headliner and get to your best UFC betting picks.
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Khabib Nurmagomedov (28-0, 8 KOs, 10 SUBs)
The Eagle has reached a level that few athletes ever reach in any sport. We’re talking Lebron James, Tom Brady with the Patriots, pre-cocaine Jon Jones type levels. Nurmagomedov is the greatest lightweight of all time, dominates the UFC’s most loaded division, and has never lost in 28 professional fights. This guy has been such a killer that Conor McGregor bragged about winning a round against him - and it’s probably the only round that Khabib has ever lost. This dude is a living legend in his prime, which is what makes his fights a premier event. Justin Gaethje has been in some huge fights, but fighting the Russian is basically jumping into the Super Bowl of MMA.
At this point, we can pretty much copy and paste our breakdowns of Khabib. We know what’s coming. His opponents know what’s coming. Nobody has a clue how to stop it - no matter how much they prep. Just ask Dustin “I can’t get this f*cker off mer” Poirier and Conor “It’s Only Business” McGregor. Both those guys have elite takedown defense and still got smeshed. And then there’s the fact that after just one takedown + smesh session, the fight is pretty much over because it just gets easier for Khabib to do it over and over and over again.
There is a real chance that Khabib may retire without ever having been truly tested inside the octagon. But there’s also a very good chance that Gaethje pulls him into deep water.
Justin Gaethje (22-2, 19 KOs, 1 SUB)
The UFC (and MMA fans) always try and promote every champ’s next opponent as his “toughest test yet”. But this is a case where it’s true. Gaethje, more than anybody else at lightweight, maxes out the correct skills to be the Khabib killer. More importantly, his determination to inflict unprecedented violence is something that cannot be prepared for.
As a decorated collegiate wrestler, Gaethje has been grappling for a very long time. What’s more, he is a defensive wrestling specialist whose hips make him damn near impossible to take down. On the feet, Gaethje goes to war with leg kicks that chop like an axe and combinations that land like sledgehammers. There’s so much tension in the standup because you can see how hard he’s swinging and how impactul his strikes are - nobody can take too many of them.
Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Nurmagomedov 4.29 / Gaethje 7.74
Striking accuracy: Nurmagomedov 49% / Gaethje 59%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Nurmagomedov 1.7 / Gaethje 8.37
Striking defense: Nurmagomedov 66% / Gaethje 54%
Grappling Stats
Takedowns per 15 minutes: Nurmagomedov 5.09 / Gaethje 0
Takedown accuracy: Nurmagomedov 44% / Gaethje 0
Takedown defense: Nurmagomedov 84% / Gaethje 80%
Submissions per 15 minutes: Nurmagomedov 0.59 / Gaethje 0
UFC Odds Pick:
Nurmagomedov to win at -350
Fight doesn’t go to decision at -210
Hedge: Gaethje by TKO at +450
Check out our top-rated online sportsbooks for the best odds, and don’t overthink your picks. Khabib is an all-time great, he’s most likely gonna keep on keeping on. You’ll feel good about your bet as soon as he lands hi first take down. We’d also bet against the decision prop as Gaethje isn’t a guy that goes to decision, win or lose. But if you’re going to hedge any of your bets, the pick is Gaethje to win by TKO, which is pretty much his only chance at victory.
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