Undefeated lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov (28-0, 8 KOs, 10 SUBs) will defend his title against No. 1 contender Tony Ferguson (25-3, 12 KOs, 8 SUBs) at UFC 249 on Saturday April, 18 at a location to be determined. Check out UFC 249 odds.
- Date & Time
- April 18th, 2020
Undefeated lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov (28-0, 8 KOs, 10 SUBs) will defend his title against No. 1 contender Tony Ferguson (25-3, 12 KOs, 8 SUBs) at UFC 249 on Saturday April, 18 at a location to be determined. The main card will air live on pay-per-view.
MMA’s most anticipated (and cursed) matchup will go on as scheduled - come rain, come shine, come pandemic apocalypse. For the fifth time, the UFC is gonna try to run a fight between Khabib Nurmagomedov and Tony Ferguson.
Among MMA fans, this might be the most anticipated fight...ever. It’s hard to really capture exactly how bad the fans want this, but I’d bet good money that as long as this scrap happens, you could cancel every other fight this year and fans would be happy with it.
It’s difficult to believe that it’s really happening. After all, this is the same matchup that’s been derailed by injuries, tiramisu and exposed camera cables. Yet somehow, despite Mother Nature’s raging attempt to shut this shit down again, Dana White is walking through the fire to bring this to pay-per-view.
But let’s not proclaim Dana a hero: this is an opportunity that will never come around again. Currently, there are zero major sports events in North America. Sportscenter’s Instagram is basically just highlights of nobodies dunking on mini hoops in their living rooms. The only current events that ESPN can talk about is NFL free agency. The country is starving for entertainment, and the UFC could get more mainstream coverage than it’s ever gotten.
And guess what? That coverage extends to our top 5 online UFC sportsbooks, where UFC 249 is basically the only live event you can bet on. While online oddsmakers released opening lines months ago, it’s only recently that our top-rated sportsbook are seeing heavy action on the fight. Sports bettors gotta bet on something, and right now this is the biggest event going. Let’s take a look at the current odds and break down the matchup.
UFC 249 Odds
Khabib Nurmagomedov -315
Tony Ferguson +238
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: +120 / -160
Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Nurmagomedov 4.29 / Ferguson 5.51
Striking accuracy: Nurmagomedov 49% / Ferguson 44%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Nurmagomedov 1.7 / Ferguson 3.55
Striking defense: Nurmagomedov 66% / Ferguson 63%
Grappling Stats
Takedowns per 15 minutes: Nurmagomedov 5.09 / Ferguson 0.6
Takedown accuracy: Nurmagomedov 44% / Ferguson 42%
Takedown defense: Nurmagomedov 84% / Ferguson 76%
Submissions per 15 minutes: Nurmagomedov 0.59 / Ferguson 1.49
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UFC Odds Pick: Lean Nurmagomedov at -315
Khabib first opened at -220 in December but crossed the -300 threshold in mid-March - indicating that all the action has been on him. In the same time, Ferguson has gone up from +172 to +238 on the comeback.
We understand the logic: nobody has stopped Khabib’s wrestling, and Tony has struggled against power wrestlers in the past. And here’s the problem for El Cucuy: it only takes one takedown for Khabib to win a fight. No, he’s not gonna finish after the first takedown, but he is going to do enough damage to completely drain the fighting spirit of his opponents. After that, every subsequent takedown just gets easier, only serving to energize the Russian more.
That’s not to say that we’re confident enough to make this a parlay booster. In fact, if Tony gets close to +300 we’d seriously consider that bet. The 36-year old is unlike anyone that Khabib has ever faced, and it’ll be interesting to see how Khabib handles a guy who fights like the equivalent of a Tasmanian devil on the feet and the mat. Can Khabib handle the relentless pace that Tony forces on his opponents?
UFC Prop Bet: Ferguson by TKO at +700
If you want to throw out a hail mary hedge play, we’d take this victory bet. Have you seen what Tony’s opponents look like after fighting him? Line up their mugshots and it looks like the victim list of some serial killer. He is remarkably consistent in slicing dudes up, and it’s not impossible that Nurmagomedov reacts poorly.
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