UFC 249 Odds - Betting the Night’s Top Fights

Lightweight contender Tony “El Cucuy” Ferguson (25-3, 12 KOs, 8 SUBs) will meet knockout artist Justin “The Highlight” Gaethje (21-2, 18 KOs, 1 SUB) at UFC 249 on Saturday, May 9 at the Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Florida. The card airs live starting 10pm ET. 

Dana White’s obsession with running fights during the Covid-19 is finally paying off. This Saturday, the UFC will become the first major sports league to resume business in North America since the pandemic began. Translation: live. Mothaluvin. SPROTS. 

Maybe you’re against holding an event and putting staff and fighters at risk, but goddamn it feels good to be watching fights again. And this card is ridiculously stacked: even the prelims has some must-watch fights. Plus, an interim championship fight between Tony Ferguson and Justin Gaethje is pretty much guaranteed to be a Fight of the Ever contender. 

There’s going to be tons of action in the sportsbook, as sports bettors are likely itchin’ to throw down money on anything. We’ve got a lot to cover, so let’s jump right into the UFC odds at our top 5 online sportsbooks and break down the best betting values across the card. 

Main Event, Lightweight Championship

Tony Ferguson -190

Justin Gaethje +150

Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: +335 / -505

Over/under 2.5 rounds: Over +102 / Under -190

Gaethje by TKO at +190

Ferguson by TKO at +220

Ferguson by submission at +225

UFC Odds Pick: Gaethje by TKO at +190

Gaethje does not win by decision, so betting his money line straight up would be selling yourself short at online sportsbook.

If this matchup took place back in April as originally shceduled, we wouldn’t be able to recommend The Highlight. But getting a few extra weeks to train makes a huge difference against Ferguson. That’s enough time to level up the cardio and sharpen the instincts before going to war. 

Ferguson’s tendency to get rocked bodes poorly against a killshot hitter like Gaethje - there’s no margin for error. While El Cucuy has a lethal submission game, it won’t be much of a factor due to Gaethje’s defensive wrestling prowess. This is going to be a standup battle that ends violently, and we love the value on Gaethje’s most likely avenue of victory. 

Alternate UFC Odds Pick: Ferguson by TKO at +265

This is your hedge play - or your main squeeze if you’re convinced Ferguson is winning. Both Gaethje and Ferguson are far too aggressive for this to go to decision. There’s a solid chance that Gaethje turns into a walking zombie, which would trigger his cardio freak opponent to dial it up to 11. If Tony gets into a rhythm, things won’t last long beyond that - I’d keep an eye on the live UFC betting odds here. 

Co-Main Event, Bantamweight Championship

Dominick Cruz +183

Henry Cejudo -235

Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: -185 / +155

Over/under 4.5 rounds: over -200 / under +170

UFC Odds Pick: Cruz to win at +183

Cruz is 34 and hasn’t fought in over 3 years. Those two things should make you very, very nervous about leaning on him, but this price is too good to pass up. 

Cejudo has put together an impressive winning streak, but we’re still not sold on how good he is. For starters, his win over Demetrious Johnson could have gone either way. Beating Dillashaw was a flash knockout. Taking out Moraes is legit, but Cejudo simply needed to expose  a faulty gas tank. 

Even if Cruz comes back just a step slower, he will be the noticeably bigger man with a style that Cejudo has never seen. The champ’s speed might cause him some issues, but Cejudo doesn’t have pop like Garbrandt. In what should be a five-round kickboxing battle, we lean on Cruz to frustrate Cejudo and win on points. 

Heavyweight 

Francis Ngannou -269

Jairzinho Rozenstruik +241

Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: +250 / -325

Over/under 1.5 rounds: Over -115 / under -115