UFC 248 Odds - Israel Adesanya vs. Yoel Romero Betting Picks

Undefeated middleweight Israel Adesanya (18-0, 14 KOs) will defend his title against Yoel Romero (13-4, 11 KOs) at UFC 248 on Saturday, March 7 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The main card airs live on ESPN pay-per-view starting 10pm ET.

Israel Adesanya isn’t wasting any time on his quest for greatness. Instead of waiting for the injured Paulo Costa, the middleweight champion is defending the title against Cuba’s Yoel Romero this Saturday in Las Vegas.

You won’t find many complaints about Romero getting his fourth title challenge despite losing his last two fights. He’s an absolute nightmare who could easily be holding the belt now if a judge or two along the way had scored a round or two differently. In every fight against a championship-level contender, The Soldier of God has either dominated or forced his opponent into a bloody war. On any given day, Romero has the ability to beat any 185-pounder in the world.

Adesanya has propelled himself into the stratosphere with a perfect 18-0 record and wins over Derek Brunson, Kelvin Gastelum and Robert Whittaker. In some cases, he straight up styles on his opponents in a way not seen since a prime Anderson Silva. Add that to a sick nickname, swag for days and a killer Twitter game and you’ve got a true blue superstar.

The champion has correctly asserted that Romero is a guy that he needs to beat to be considered the best middleweight on the planet. The UFC odds at our top 5 online sportsbooks clearly favor The Last Stylebender, with a -235 opening line. In contrast, Romero opened at +195 on the comeback. Let’s break down your best betting values at the online sportsbook and make some picks.

UFC 248 Odds

Israel Adesanya -300

Yoel Romero +228

Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: +145 / -185

Significant Striking Stats

Strikes landed per minute: Adesanya 4.47 / Romero 3.32

Striking accuracy: Adesanya 53% / Romero 51%

Strikes absorbed per minute: Adesanya 2.07 / Romero 2.95

Striking defense: Adesanya 69% / Romero 63%

Grappling Stats

Takedown average: Adesanya 0 / Romero 1.98

Takedown accuracy: Adesanya - / Romero 35%

Takedown defense: Adesanya 85% / Romero 78%

Submission defense: Adesanya 0.22 / Romero 0

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On paper, you might be tempted to think that Romero, an Olympic silver medalist in freestyle wrestling, will look to dominate with his wrestling. After all, Adesanya is a lanky striking specialist - Derek Brunson kept on telling him he was “too skinny” to stop the takedowns. But Romero has never relied on wrestling to get wins, seemingly to conserve his limited stamina. Plus, Brunson didn’t even come close to bringing down Stylebender.

In a kickboxing match, Adesanya has almost every advantage. Physically, he’s taller and longer than the Cuban. Statistically, the champ lands at a higher rate and throws more dynamic combinations. But Romero isn’t concerned with how many strikes he lands - he’ll gladly drop a few rounds to wait for the perfect time to unleash his trademark blitz. These few seconds are some of the most violent, scariest moments in MMA. Even at 42 years old, the Cuban is still one of the most explosive dudes we’ve ever seen.

UFC Odds Pick: Adesanya to win at -300

Romero fights the same way each time out, so Adesanya knows exactly how to fight him. We also have to consider that age finally might be catching up to the Cuban: Whittaker was able to survive two grueling wars, and Costa was able to avoid the blitzes. Adesanya is a more skilled striker than both of those guys, and the chin really hasn’t been touched yet. This is Stylebender’s fight to lose.

UFC Odds Pick: Romero to win by TKO

This is either your hedge pick or how you bet Romero to win: he is not a fighter that wins by decision. He’s already an underdog to begin with, so maximize your return by picking the most likely method of victory.

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