UFC 245 Odds - Kamaru Usman vs. Colby Covington Prediction

Come one, come all - and relish the opportunity to see if Colby Covington finally gets his comeuppance. The brash welterweight has been grating on Dana White, the fans, his own teammates and everyone within earshot in search for his chance at the title. This Saturday, it finally comes to fruition: Kamaru Usman will defend the 170-pound title against Covington on the main event of a loaded Vegas pay-per-view card. 

There’s just so much to like about this fight. First, it pits the two best guys in a stacked division against each other. Second, these two legitimately hate each other. Title matches and all are cool, but what’s really cool is when there’s legitimate beef driving them. The narrative here practically writes itself, and both men are buying into their roles: Covington is the ultimate MAGA man, a natural heel who goads his haters by calling them nerds and virgins. Usman is the son of African immigrants who promises to “unleash the rage of all immigrants” onto his opponent. 

They’ve gone at it on Twitter, at press conferences and had their share of backstage confrontations. But regardless of the context, this is just an awesome fight. Both guys only have one loss, and Usman is riding a 14-fight win streak that includes a dominant win over Tyron Woodley to win the belt. Covington has won seven in a row, pummelling every opponent during that run. Both guys are elite wrestlers. 

The UFC odds at the top 5 online sportsbooks opened with Usman as a clear favorite, but Covington’s price indicate this should be a competitive fight. But let’s check into your best betting options at the top online sportsbook and break down the best values. Live UFC betting is also available at any time during the fight as well. 

UFC odds at the online sportsbook

Significant Striking Stats

Strikes landed per minute: Usman 4.2 / Covington 3.9

Striking accuracy: Usman 54% / Covington 37%

Strikes absorbed per minute: Usman 1.6 / Covington 2.35

Striking defense: Usman 57% / Covington 56%

Grappling Stats

Takedown average: Usman 3.96 / Covington 5.69

Takedown accuracy: Usman 50% / Covington 51%

Takedown defense: Usman 100% / Covington 78%

Submission average: Usman 0.19 / Covington 0.2

Bet this UFC fight at the online sportsbook

Extremely tough fight to call here. Most of the early action has been on Usman, which resulted in his line dropping down his opening price of -165. We can see the reasoning here: Usman’s elite wrestling neutralizes Colby’s biggest strength. In terms of physical talent, the champion has the upper hand - he’s bigger, a better athlete and has more natural punching power. 

Many times when great wrestlers face off, they end up testing each other’s striking. Both are high-volume strikers with the gas tank to establish a relentless pace. Neither are particularly impressive in the standup, but again, Usman seems to have the better tools to work with. 

Stil, we simply don’t know how Usman will respond to a fighter like Covington. You see a body as jacked as his and it’s easy to assume that he might gas. Colby has 25 minutes to work with here, and it’s not hard to see him tiring out the champ and rolling down hill in the later rounds. It doesn’t take a lot of convincing to talk yourself into picking the underdog here. 

UFC Odds Pick: Usman to win at -190

This is a soft pick, but there’s enough to like about Usman to prompt a decent-sized bet. For starters, he’s got 100% takedown defense. Taking away the threat of Covington’s takedowns should open up a lot of doors for him. Second, if Colby starts teeing off on him, Usman can probably press him into the cage and control him for long periods of time. 

UFC Odds Pick: Fight doesn’t go to decision at +180

This is a gut call, but Usman is pissed - he’s either going to finish Colby or screw himself over trying to do so. Plus, given how hard both dudes go, there’s a good chance that this ends before the judges’ scorecards. 

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