Week 9 NFL Parlay Picks

For the second time this season, I came very close to sweeping my parlay picks. There was never any real doubt that I would hit my Underdog Parlay of the Week as Cleveland and Las Vegas both stayed within the number in their games. The Browns won outright against the Baltimore Ravens despite being close to a double-digit underdog per the NFL betting odds, while the Raiders kept their game against the Kansas City Chiefs close for all but a few minutes.

My Total Parlay of the Week would have hit too if not for a very unlucky performance from the New York Jets’ defense. They surrendered 25 points to the lowly New England Patriots, even after Drake Maye was injured early in the game. New England finished with a scant 248 total yards of offense and averaged just 3.9 yards per play. 

YTD 4-12 -$153.82

Week 9 NFL Parlay Picks

Frank Reich Parlay of the Week

Carolina Panthers +7.5 vs. New Orleans Saints 

Buffalo Bills -6 vs. Miami Dolphins

$100 to win $270.92

Too much is being made about Derek Carr’s return to the starting lineup for the New Orleans Saints. The Saints smashed Carolina and Dallas in their first two games this season, but they have since derailed. New Orleans has lost six straight games, and while both Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener really struggled in place of Carr, the wheels came off while the veteran quarterback was still under center. In his three most recent starts, Carr completed 60 of 89 passes for 546 yards with three touchdowns and three interceptions. Carolina isn’t great, but Bryce Young had some success moving the ball last week, so I like the Panthers to keep it within the number.

Buffalo is once again on a warpath. Josh Allen has been great this season (even though he has been fortunate not to have thrown more interceptions), and the Bills are currently 3-0 at home. They can essentially lock up the AFC East title with a second win over the Miami Dolphins this week as it would put them four games ahead of very other team in the division. Tua Tagovailoa did make his long-awaited return last Sunday, but it was pretty clear that the Dolphins wanted to make sure he was protected given his history of concussions. The Dolphins offense is still somewhat limited, and that will lead to the Bills securing a double-digit win by the NFL betting odds.

Total Parlay of the Week

Under 46.5 in Baltimore Ravens vs. Denver Broncos

Under 43.5 in Cleveland Browns vs. Los Angeles Chargers

$100 to win $272.63

I feel like a broken record at times, but Baltimore’s defense is nowhere near as bad as it has looked in recent weeks. The Ravens have been the best run-stopping team in the league, but they have really struggled in the secondary despite an array of talent. That has led to Baltimore ranking in the bottom quarter of the NFL in scoring defense and total defense.

Fortunately for the Ravens, Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos are not good at moving the ball through the air. Nix is averaging just 5.9 YPC, and that’s with his numbers taking a big bump after facing lowly Carolina last week. On the other side of the ball, Denver has a superb defense that ranks 1st in yards per play allowed, and third in both scoring defense and total defense. The Broncos should be able to somewhat slow down the Ravens, making the Under a great bet.

Jameis Winston was named the AFC Offensive Player of the Week for this performance against Baltimore last Sunday, but Winston is already getting too much respect after a single performance. He is a rollercoaster of a quarterback with plenty of ups and downs, and it feels likely we will see the bad side of the former No. 1 overall pick on Sunday. The Chargers lead the league in scoring defense and try to hold the ball for long stretches under Jim Harbaugh. I expect this game to move by pretty quickly, but I would be surprised if either team scored more than 20 points.