Week 8 NFL Parlay Picks

For a little while, it looked like I was going to hit both my Underdog Parlay of the Week and my Total Parlay of the Week in Week 7. New England got off to a strong start against Jacksonville in London, and Tennessee looked game on the road against Buffalo. Both the Patriots and the Titans held a 10-0 lead early in the second quarter before things fell apart for both teams.

Meanwhile, Green Bay and Houston combined to score 30 points in the second quarter, but their game failed to go over the total. There simply weren’t enough plays as the Packers and Texans combined for only 114 plays, far short of the NFL average of 153 plays per game. It’s a shame as the second part of my Total Parlay of the Week cleared with ease as the Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants finished far short of the total. 

YTD 3-11 -$315.35

Week 8 NFL Parlay Picks

Underdog Parlay of the Week

Cleveland Browns +9 vs. Baltimore Ravens

Las Vegas Raiders +10 vs. Kansas City Chiefs

$100 to win $261.53

It’s easy to have a little trepidation when it comes to betting on the Cleveland Browns. Cleveland is 1-6 and has lost five straight games. The ‘Blackjack Browns’ (as dubbed by Bill Simmons) have looked inept on offense with Deshaun Watson under center, but Jameis Winston is now the starter. Winston runs hot and cold, but he is the type of player that can give the Browns a spark. Standout running back Nick Chubb is also ready to go again after suffering a season-ending injury in 2023.

The Las Vegas Raiders have suffered some bad losses this season. They have lost by double digits to four teams (including the Carolina Panthers), but there is reason to like their chances ahead of a showdown with the Kansas City Chiefs. Divisional games tend to be closer than non-divisional games due to the increased familiarity between the teams, and the Kansas City Chiefs have been far from dominant despite their unblemished record. Patrick Mahomes has thrown two more interceptions than touchdowns, and they have yet to score more than 28 points in a game this season.

Total Parlay of the Week

Under 41 in New England Patriots vs. New York Jets

Under 42.5 in Denver Broncos vs. Carolina Panthers

$100 to win $266.32

I lost my Total Parlay of the Week last week because I took my first Over, so I am back on the Under train. There is a lot of bad blood between the New England Patriots and the New York Jets. Both of these teams are infamous for having inept offenses recently though, as their last five meetings have all produced less than 40 points. Their earlier showdown this season saw the Jets defeat the Patriots 24-3, and it was the fourth consecutive meeting with less than 28 total points.

It's unlikely we see much more scoring than that as the Patriots have a rookie quarterback, and the Jets have not been strong on offense this year. They have yet to score more than 24 points in a game, putting pressure on the defense to step up. This defense should have little problem shutting down Drake Maye, so the Under is the play here.

The other Under I like is in Carolina and Denver. The Panthers might be the worst team in the NFL once again, and their offense has been abysmal. Bryce Young is set to start once more, yet he doesn’t inspire confidence as he has completed just 37 of 65 passes for 299 yards (4.6 YPA) with no touchdowns and three interceptions in four appearances. Denver’s defense ranks first in yards per play allowed, points per play, and red zone defense, and the Broncos rank third in scoring defense and total defense.

Meanwhile, Bo Nix has not looked great as a passer. Nix has completed 61.2% of his passes for 1,246 yards (5.6 YPA) with five touchdowns and five interceptions. He is a solid runner, and that keeps the rookie somewhat dangerous, but this offense is extremely one-dimensional. Nix has yet to throw for more than 250 yards in a game.