Week 7 NFL Parlay Picks

After failing to hit a parlay for two straight weeks, I hit one of my two parlays in Week 6 of the NFL season. My Short Favorite Parlay of the Week cashed with ease as both Pittsburgh and Cincinnati won by more than a field goal as road favorites per the NFL betting odds. Pittsburgh cruised to an easy win over Las Vegas despite a subpar game from Justin Fields, while Cincinnati gritted out a win over the New York Giants on Sunday Night Football. My Total Parlay of the Week failed to hit once again, but I’m feeling good once again heading into Week 7.

YTD 3-9 -$115.35

Week 7 NFL Parlay Picks

Underdog Parlay of the Week

Tennessee Titans +9 at Buffalo Bills

New England Patriots +6 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (in London)

$100 to win $260.06

It’s become painfully obvious that Will Levis is not going to be the answer under center for the Tennessee Titans. This team ranks second-to-last in the league in total offense, racking up a scant 253.2 YPG, as Levis has thrown for just 699 yards (5.6 YPA) with five touchdowns and seven interceptions through five games.

However, the defense has been very good considering the shortcomings of the offense. Tennessee ranks first in total defense, allowing just 248.8 YPG and 4.3 YPP. The secondary has been excellent against the pass, allowing just 5.5 YPA, and that’s despite the Titans not forcing many sacks or turnovers.

Buffalo’s defense is still lacking the big play element even with the addition of Amari Cooper. I expect the Bills to win but asking them to win by double digits is a tall task here.

As for the second leg of this parlay, I really think New England can win outright against Jacksonville. Rookie Drake Maye gives the Patriots a real spark under center, while the Jaguars look like they might be on the brink of collapse. They have been one of the worst teams through the first third of the season, and their lone win came against an Indianapolis team that was very banged up on defense. 

Total Parlay of the Week

Over 48 in Green Bay vs. Houston

Under 43 in New York vs. Philadelphia

$100 to win $268.47

We could see a shootout in Green Bay this Sunday. The weather is supposed to be very hospitable for this time of year, and unlike Kyler Murray, C.J. Stroud has plenty of experience playing outdoor football in the north. Stroud continues to play at an elite level, and he is coming off his best performance of the season last week against New England. Joe Mixon is back in action too, and he was sorely missed as Cam Akers could not fill his shoes.

Green Bay has looked great on offense too, leading me to bet my first Over of the year. The Packers are averaging 27.0 PPG and 400,0 YPG. Jordan Love has looked electric at times, and this offensive line has only surrendered eight sacks all season. Second-year tight end Tucker Kraft is really emerging as a threat, and the Packers finally made a much needed move at kicker.

I doubt there will be a lot of scoring when Philadelphia takes on the New York Giants. Only one Giants’ game has had more than 40 total points scored so far this season, and there were two non-offensive touchdowns in that game. The Giants are excellent on defense, boasting the highest sack rate in the NFL thanks in large part to Dexter Lawrence. Brian Burns and Azeez Ojulari were fantastic last week, and they should thrive against a Philadelphia offense that struggles against pressure.

Philadelphia has failed to score more than 21 points in a game since its season opener. The book is out on how to stop Jalen Hurts, as he continues to have a hard time against defenses that can effectively rush the passer. The offensive line plane has left a lot to be desired, and left tackle Jordan Mailata is likely to miss this game with a hamstring injury. With that in mind, I believe it’s unlikely that we will see more than 40 points in this game.