Week 5 NFL Parlay Picks

I came within a few points of winning my third straight Total Parlay of the Week in Week 4, but instead I ended up going 0-2 on Sunday. Las Vegas and Cleveland did end up falling short of the total by a single point, but San Francisco and New England went over their total. A defensive touchdown and a 63-yard field goal in the second quarter doomed me there along with five combined turnovers that set up short fields.

For the first time this season, I also put together a three-team parlay last week. Only one of those three legs ended up winning with Cincinnati finally breaking into the win column against Carolina. Houston won but was unable to cover the number against winless Jacksonville, while Arizona was shredded by red hot Washington despite being a home favorite per the NFL betting odds.

That performance has me back in the red, but I am hoping to be Back in Black at the conclusion of this week. 

YTD 2-6 -$55.69

Week 5 NFL Parlay Picks

Short Favorite Parlay of the Week

Minnesota Vikings -2.5 vs. New York Jets (in London)Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys $100 to win $263.03

Minnesota and Pittsburgh are both teams that outperformed their expectations in September. Typically, this would spell a return to the median for the Vikings and Steelers, but both teams are facing fortuitous situations this weekend.

Too much is being made out of the final score of Minnesota’s game against Green Bay last week. The Vikes led the Packers 28-0 after 25 minutes and then clearly took their foot off the gas pedal and only won by two points. It’s clear that the oddsmakers and public alike are having a hard time buying into Sam Darnold being the quarterback of a potential 10+ win team, but the coaching has been incredible. The Vikings have been fortunate enough to avoid additional major injuries after first-round pick J.J. McCarthy tore his meniscus in preseason too.

Meanwhile, it feels like the Jets are dangerously close to an implosion. They are 2-2, but their wins came against Tennessee and New England, and they suffered a bad home loss to Denver in Week 4. They rank outside the top 20 in scoring offense and total offense, massively disappointing fans and fantasy owners who expected Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall to thrive with a healthy Aaron Rodgers under center.

Pittsburgh is in prime position for a bounce-back game against Dallas on Sunday Night Football. The Steelers thrive against one-dimensional offenses, and the Cowboys are simply unable to effectively run the football. They will also be without Brandin Cooks too, limiting their options in the passing game. Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence will be sidelined on defense, leaving Dallas without its two best players in the front seven.

Total Parlay of the Week

Under 46.5 in Jacksonville vs. IndianapolisUnder 49.5 in Los Angeles Rams vs. Green Bay

$100 to win $270.92

The decision to give Trevor Lawrence a massive contract extension will likely undermine Jacksonville’s franchise for the next few years. Jacksonville is the only winless team in the league through the first month of the season, and the Jaguars are averaging just 15 PPG. They are nearly averaging as many yards per run as per pass, but the good news for the Under is that they don’t turn the ball over. Indianapolis has not been strong defensively, yet the Colts will be more limited on offense with Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor banged up.

There is still far too much hype surrounding Jordan Love. Green Bay’s young quarterback had a breakout 2023 campaign, but we have yet to see whether or not that was an aberration. He is not fully healthy, and he has completed just 55.7% of his passes for 7.4 YPA with four interceptions in his two starts. As for the Rams, this offense doesn’t have either of its top receivers. Matthew Stafford is still putting up solid numbers, but a lot of the big play potential is gone with both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua sidelined. The ground game has struggled to move the chains and provide support too.