Week 4 NFL Parlay Picks

Once again, I won one of my two parlays last week to move into the black on the season. Although underdogs on the NFL betting line continued to clean up and thin out Survivor Pools, I picked two of the favorites that won and covered in Kansas City and Buffalo. The Chiefs were admittedly somewhat fortunate (although we have come to expect that from this team), but the Bills left no doubt that they were significantly better than the Jacksonville Jaguars.

I was not as fortunate in my second parlay. New Orleans and Philadelphia went way under the total, but Los Angeles was able to move the ball against San Francisco’s normally stout defense. That sunk my Total Parlay of the Week, but I’ll take any week in which I make money.

YTD 2-4 $144.31

Week 4 NFL Parlay Picks

Total Parlay of the Week

U40.5 in San Francisco vs. New England

U37 in Las Vegas vs. Cleveland $100 to win $276.11

New England has one of the worst offenses in the NFL. Jacoby Brissett has not been effective under center, and the Patriots could not move the ball against the New York Jets on Thursday Night Football in Week 3. The Patriots finished with just 139 total yards and allowed seven sacks, and their longest play from scrimmage was just 22 yards.

While the Pats rank 31st in scoring offense (13.0 PPG) and 32nd in total offense (246.3 YPG), they have been solid on defense. They are surrendering just 19.0 PPG despite having such a weak offense. San Francisco is one of the most run-heavy teams in the league under Kyle Shanahan, and given their injury issues, it’s likely they will be content to sit on the football and bleed out New England on its way to a win.

Admittedly, I don’t feel as strongly about the second leg of this parlay. However, Las Vegas and Cleveland both have a lot of issues on offense. Deshaun Watson has been incredibly disappointing during his time with the Browns, and he appears to be feuding with his offensive coordinator based on remarks he made earlier this week. 

Meanwhile, Las Vegas head coach Antonio Pierce had some pointed comments for his team following last week’s blowout loss to the Carolina Panthers. They have been garbage time kings over the last two weeks, so I don’t expect them to have much success against the Cleveland defense.

Three-Team Favorite Parlay of the Week

Houston Texans -6.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Arizona Cardinals -3.5 vs. Washington Commanders Cincinnati Bengals -4 at Carolina Panthers

$100 to win $648.10

It’s unlikely I will put together more than a handful of three-team parlays this season, but I do really like three favorites in Week 4.

Houston is probably the most public pick of the bunch considering how bad Jacksonville looked on Monday Night Football against Buffalo. It has become readily apparent that Trevor Lawrence is not the NFL talent he was proclaimed to be coming out of Clemson four years ago, while reigning NFL Rookie of the Year C.J. Stroud is on his way to superstardom. The only real concern for Houston is offensive line play as Stroud has already been sacked 11 times, but Jacksonville ranks in the bottom five in sack rate.

The most eyebrow raising pick in this three-team parlay is Arizona. Washington and rookie Jayden Daniels looked superb on Monday Night Football in an upset win over Cincinnati, and that has led to many picking the Commanders as a short underdog on the road per the NFL betting odds. However, Daniels is unlikely to have much success in his second straight road game (this one on short rest). Meanwhile, Arizona must be salivating at the thought of facing a Washington defense that ranks 29th in scoring defense, total defense, run defense, and pass defense.

Finally, it might be Week 4, but this is a must-win game for Cincinnati. The Bengals can’t fall to 0-4, and they can’t lose to a bad Carolina team or long-time quarterback Andy Dalton. This defense has been somewhat unlucky, and Joe Burrow has looked sharp in each of the last two weeks after opening the season with a clunker against New England.