Week 16 NFL Parlay Picks

If the New Orleans Saints had converted on a two-point conversion at the end of their game against the Washington Commanders last week, I would have been playing with house money for the rest of the season. My Underdog Moneyline Parlay of the Week had an easy winner in Dallas knocking off Carolina on the road, and it would have paid a whopping $855 if the Saints knocked off the Commanders. Unfortunately, the Saints came up just short as they stuck with Jake Haener for too long and Spencer Rattler couldn’t convert at the end as New Orleans lost 20-19.

I still ended up in the black though as my Total Parlay of the Week cashed. Neither side had more than a couple points to spare though as Dallas and Carolina went over their total by a single point and Pittsburgh and Philadelphia combined to go under by a total of two points. Still, I will take it given the luck I have had this season, and I am very close to again being in the black overall.

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YTD 7-23 -$69.39

Week 16 NFL Parlay Picks

Underdog Moneyline Parlay of the Week

New York Giants +330 at Atlanta Falcons

Pittsburgh Steelers +243 at Baltimore Ravens 

$100 to win $1,374.90

Kirk Cousins has been benched, and rookie Michael Penix will start under center for the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday. There is some buzz about the No. 8 overall pick, but Penix and the Falcons should not be this much of a favorite with a player that has only thrown five passes at the NFL level. The New York Giants are a mess with nine straight losses, and they are extremely banged up on offense, but this is just too high of a price with a rookie quarterback making his first career start.

Baltimore should not be this much of a favorite against Pittsburgh either. Lamar Jackson has really struggled against the Steelers in his career, and the Ravens only scored 16 points when these teams met in the Steel City a month ago. Pittsburgh could have won by an even bigger margin if the Steelers had found the end zone on one of their four red zone trips, but instead they settled for six Chris Boswell field goals in that game. The key for the Steelers in this game will be the availability of George Pickens as this offense can’t stretch the field without Pickens. 

Total Parlay of the Week

Under 40.5 in Las Vegas Raiders vs. Jacksonville JaguarsUnder 42.5 in Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans

$100 to win $274.28

I’m betting the Under in two games involving bad quarterbacks in my Total Parlay of the Week. Las Vegas has arguably the worst quarterback situation in the NFL, and that’s saying a lot considering how many teams have quarterback issues. Gardner Minshew, Aidan O’Connell, and Desmond Ridder have all started at different points, and they have combined to throw 15 touchdowns and 15 interceptions while being sacked 47 times. 

Mac Jones will be starting for the Jaguars, and we’ve seen how much he has struggled. Jacksonville is averaging 13.6 PPG in his five starts since replacing an injured Trevor Lawrence, and Jones has thrown four touchdown passes and seven interceptions.

Indianapolis and Tennessee combined to score just 37 points in their first meeting this season. Neither the Colts nor the Titans had more than 270 total yards of offense in that game, and it feels like both offenses may have regressed since that point.

Mason Rudolph will be starting ahead of Will Levis, but Rudolph hasn’t been any better this season. Additionally, he is not as much of a running threat as Levis, so that could further constrain the offense even if Rudolph is a bit more accurate.

The Colts are still starting Anthony Richardson although he has been dreadful in his last three games. Richardson is a talented athlete, but he needs a ton of work as a passer. He has completed 50% or less of his passes in each of his last three starts, and he is averaging just 4.5 YPA while throwing four interceptions in his last two games. 

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