Week 13 NFL Parlay Picks

At long last, I have broken my losing streak on NFL Parlay Picks. I was a little fortunate to have the Las Vegas Raiders blow their goal line chance late in the game and then to get a garbage time touchdown from the Los Angeles Chargers, but I won’t look a gift horse in the mouth considering how bad I have been on these plays of late. Those events led to Denver covering at home against Las Vegas and the Monday Night Football title between the Baltimore Ravens and the Chargers going over the total.

The Under Parlay of the Week blew up in spectacular fashion. I’ve done pretty well on Unders this year, but both the Washington/Dallas game and the Houston/Tennessee game went well over the total. The Commanders and Cowboys played an insane fourth quarter that saw 38 points scored in the final five minutes. Elsewhere, the Texans and Titans both scored with ease, ensuring this parlay would be a loser even if nothing absurd happened in DC.

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YTD 5-19 -$578.38

Week 12 NFL Parlay Picks

AFC North Parlay of the Week

Cincinnati Bengals -3 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Baltimore Ravens -3 vs. Philadelphia Eagles$100 to win $281.28

Cincinnati is now in must-win territory. The Bengals’ playoff hopes are hanging by a thread at 4-7. Many pundits consider this team to be much better than their record indicates, but they have been unlucky with a 1-6 record in one-score games. They are coming off a bye week and should have something new cooked up for the AFC North leading Pittsburgh Steelers. Pittsburgh has dominated this rivalry historically, but the Steelers did not look good last week against the Cleveland Browns, and they have had some real trouble establishing the run at times.

Philadelphia is the only team that can possibly run down Detroit for home field advantage in the NFC at this point in the season. The Eagles have won seven straight games since their bye week, but none of those teams were nearly as talented as Baltimore. The Ravens are battle tested and will finally get their bye week following Sunday’s clash with the Eagles, so we may see them throw a little more caution to the wind. Their defense is a bit banged up on a short week, but Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry will be too much for the Eagles to stop.

Total Parlay of the Week

Under 44.5 in Washington Commanders vs. Tennessee TitansUnder 41.5 in Denver Broncos vs. Cleveland Browns

$100 to win $279.73

I was burned by both Washington and Tennessee last week, but I still believe I have the right read on both teams. The Commanders looked dead on offense for 55 minutes against the lowly Dallas defense. Rookie Jayden Daniels has been figured out, and he has not been nearly as effective as he was earlier this season. In his last five games, Daniels is completing just 61.6% of his passes for 1,203 yards (7.4 YPA) with six touchdowns and three interceptions. He hasn’t been as prone to run either, taking away a key part of Washington’s offense.

Tennessee is coming off its best offensive performance of the season. The Titans scored more than 17 points in regulation for just the second time all year, and Will Levis posted his best numbers so far. However, I will view that as an aberration more than a drastic shift in Tennessee’s offensive prowess, and I would be surprised if the Titans put more than 17 points on the board here.

I’m once again taking the Under in a Denver game too. The Broncos have an elite defense and an offense that shouldn’t be scoring this much with Bo Nix at the helm. The rookie quarterback has fared better than expected lately, but he still has some flaws in his game. Nix is averaging just 6.4 YPA, and his QBR is outside the top 20 in the NFL.

Cleveland’s offense has been abysmal this year. The Browns are averaging just 16.9 PPG, and they rank dead last in yards per play (4.5 YPP) and third-down conversions (27% conversion rate). That doesn’t bode well for their performance against a rock solid Denver defense.

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