Week 13 NFL Best Bets

I continue to go 2-2 each week like clockwork. This is the fourth straight week in which I split my four Best Bets, and hopefully that consistency has won readers some money as I keep losing juice on my picks. New England failed to cover the number in spectacular fashion against Miami, and the Denver defense wasn’t strong enough to keep its game against Las Vegas from going over the total. However, the Broncos were able to cover the number (with a little luck at the end), and Baltimore was in full control against the Los Angeles Chargers on Monday Night Football.

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YTD 22-24 ATS

Week 13 NFL Betting Odds and Picks

Under 47 in Green Bay Packers vs. Miami Dolphins

Snow is in the forecast for this Thursday Night Football game that will close out a Thanksgiving tripleheader. Contrary to popular opinion, that factor alone doesn’t make a game more likely to have fewer points, but it is a fact that Tua Tagovailoa really struggles in the cold. In games that are 40 degrees or less at kickoff, Tagovailoa is 0-4 and has thrown four touchdowns and five interceptions. Miami has scored a total of 65 points (16.3 PPG) in those games.

Green Bay scored 38 points against San Francisco last week, but the Packers only had 325 total yards of offense. They scored three touchdowns off short fields thanks to 49ers’ turnovers. The Packers have been good on offense, but they have also benefited from playing more than a few subpar defenses. Miami is allowing 304.5 YPG and 21.5 PPG, and I believe the Dolphins will be able to do enough on defense to keep this game from going Over the total.

Under 44.5 in Washington Commanders vs. Tennessee Titans

Washington only managed to score nine points in 57 minutes before hell broke loose in the final three minutes against Dallas last week. It very much looks like Jayden Daniels has hit the rookie wall, as he has not been the same since taking on Baltimore last month. Although Daniels posted good numbers against the Ravens, the defense showed how to limit his capabilities, and the Commanders haven’t been as potent on offense since that point. 

Tennessee ranks second in total defense (276.4 YPG), and the Titans have been very unlucky to allow 26.4 PPG. They get off the field well enough, allowing opponents to pick up third downs just 31.6% of the time, but turnovers (particularly interceptions) have put the defense in a bad spot. Conversely, the Titans are averaging just 18.4 PPG on offense, so I will bet on a return to form after last week’s offensive explosion against Houston.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6 at Carolina Panthers

There was never a doubt that Tampa Bay was going to win against the New York Giants last week. The Buccaneers took a 23-0 lead into halftime as Baker Mayfield was exceptionally efficient despite not throwing a touchdown. The return of Mike Evans gives this offense a much-needed spark, and fourth-round draft pick Bucky Irving is averaging 5.4 YPC as the top running back for the Buccaneers.

Carolina has acquitted itself well for three straight weeks, but the Saints and the Giants are dumpster fires. The Panthers did make it interesting late against the Kansas City Chiefs, yet that game was never really in doubt as the Chiefs led by double digits at the end of halftime and the third quarter. Tampa Bay can’t afford to take Carolina for granted if it looks to make a playoff push, so the Bucs won’t leave much doubt here.

Denver Broncos -5.5 vs. Cleveland Browns

Once again, I’m backing the Broncos as they continue to cover the number against bad teams. Denver’s only losses this season have come against playoff contenders, while the Broncos have five straight double-digit wins against opponents. 

Cleveland will have had a little extra time to prepare for this game, but the Browns are largely focused on simply playing spoiler against division rivals. We have seen a much different Cleveland team against AFC North foes then we have against anyone else, so hold the line with Denver in Mile High on Monday Night Football.

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