Week 11 NFL Parlay Picks

I’m a little disappointed with myself for falling into the trap game school of thought with the Buffalo Bills last week. I believed that they would be looking ahead to their showdown with the Kansas City Chiefs and would overlook the Indianapolis Colts as a result. The Bills did fall behind the Colts midway through the second quarter, but Buffalo scored 20 straight points to put the game away. That ruined a parlay that would have put me in the black on the year as the Arizona Cardinals easily dispatched of the New York Jets despite being a mind-boggling underdog per the NFL betting odds.

Unfortunately, my Under Parlay of the Week lost too as the Tennessee Titans and Los Angeles Chargers played a game that had way too many points considering the teams combined for just 598 total yards with no turnovers and no defensive scores. Every drive either had five or less plays or resulted in points, as both teams really took advantage of their chances. That spoiled a solid read on the Philadelphia-Dallas game as the Cowboys’ offense was totally hapless with Cooper Rush under center.

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YTD 4-16 -$553.82

Week 11 NFL Parlay Picks

Underdog Parlay of the Week

Cincinnati Bengals ML +105 at Los Angeles Chargers

Jacksonville Jaguars +14 at Detroit Lions

$100 to win $283.26

This is a must-win game for the Cincinnati Bengals. Despite having one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL, the Bengals are sitting at just 4-6. They have a much-needed bye week next week but almost no room for error if they want to make the playoffs.

Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase have been a formidable duo this season. Burrow is completing 68.7% of his passes for 2,672 yards (7.5 YPA) with 24 touchdowns and four interceptions, while Chase leads the league in every receiving category with 66 receptions for 981 yards and 10 touchdowns. Unfortunately, they haven’t had much help from the rest of their teammates, but they match up well the 6-3 Los Angeles Chargers. The Chargers don’t have a win against a team with a winning record and have been somewhat smoke and mirrors.

Meanwhile, everyone is off the Jacksonville Jaguars’ bandwagon, but this is far too many points for Detroit to be laying after last week’s comeback win over Houston on Sunday Night Football. The Lions are the top team in the NFC, but they should not be laying two touchdowns to anyone considering some of the issues we have seen and the situation. I don’t think the Jaguars will pull off the upset, but two touchdowns is way too much here.

Total Parlay of the Week

Under 43 in New York Jets vs. Indianapolis ColtsUnder 44.5 in New Orleans Saints vs. Cleveland Browns

$100 to win $269.33

The New York Jets have been the most disappointing team this season, but it was wild that so many pundits were buying into Aaron Rodgers even though he will turn 41 on December 2. Rodgers hasn’t been terrible this season, but he hasn’t been good either, completing just 62.4% of his passes for 2,258 yards (6.4 YPA) with 15 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Garrett Wilson has been a bit of a disappointment, and not even the addition of Davante Adams was able to rejuvenate this offense. The Jets rank 26th in scoring offense and total offense, averaging just 17.7 PPG and 298.5 YPG. Meanwhile, the Indianapolis Colts are back to starting Anthony Richardson again, and his accuracy leaves much to be desired.

Jameis Winston will be taking on his former team in the second leg of this parlay. Both Cleveland and New Orleans have been massive disappointments, so I believe both teams will start looking to just play out the string. Neither the Browns nor the Saints have been great on offense with Cleveland averaging just 16.4 PPG (29th in the NFL) and 274.4 YPG (31st in the NFL), and New Orleans is averaging just 17 PPG over the last eight weeks after scoring 91 points in the first two weeks of the season. This feels like a 20-17 or 17-14 type of game.

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