Week 11 NFL Best Bets

It’s disappointing to still be under .500 at this point of the season. I thought I would get back to .500 with last week’s picks, but instead I went 2-2 yet again despite getting off to a great start. The Under hit in the Germany game between Carolina and New York despite overtime, and Pittsburgh won outright over Washington despite being a field goal underdog per the NFL betting odds. Unfortunately, the Tennessee Titans failed to cover the number against the Los Angeles Chargers by two points, despite having just 20 fewer total yards in a game with no turnovers for either team. Additionally, the Los Angeles Rams failed to beat the Miami Dolphins on Monday Night Football even though the Rams outgained the Dolphins by 89 yards and finished even in the turnover battle.

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YTD 18-20 ATS

Week 11 NFL Betting Odds and Picks

Green Bay Packers -6 at Chicago Bears

Matt Eberflus might be the next head coach fired this season. Chicago is in a tailspin after dropping its third straight game, and that led to the Bears firing offensive coordinator Shane Waldron earlier this week. They have averaged a paltry 9.0 PPG in those three defeats, leading some to start questioning No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams and this offense.

Chicago has the toughest remaining schedule in the league by a wide margin, and the Bears will now have to face the Green Bay Packers coming off a bye week. Jordan Love was able to use the time to rest some of the injuries that have been bothering him, and almost every starter will be ready to go for Green Bay on Sunday. 

Baltimore Ravens -3 at Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a bad matchup for Pittsburgh. The Ravens stop the run better than any other team, and the way to beat this defense is over the top. Russell Wilson has played well for the Steelers to this point, but he is limited at this stage of his career.

Meanwhile, Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry are the most formidable backfield tandem in the NFL. Henry has already run for 1,120 yards and 12 touchdowns while averaging 6.1 YPC, and Jackson has run for 538 yards (5.9 YPC) and two scores. Pittsburgh has done a very good job of stopping the run this season, but the Ravens are going to be too much. 

Over 47 in Los Angeles Chargers vs. Cincinnati Bengals

This is a massive game for both teams. The Cincinnati Bengals have a thin margin of error at 4-6, while the Los Angeles Chargers don’t have a win over any opponent that is currently over .500.

Much is being made about the Chargers’ defense that is allowing an NFL low 13.1 PPG. However, the Chargers have not played a great offense yet. Joe Burrow and the Bengals can light it up through the air, and they have the potential to torch these cornerbacks. Cincinnati has had a few extra days to prepare and will score at least 27 points against the Chargers. It shouldn’t be too hard for the Chargers to move the ball either as long as they can contain Trey Hendrickson.

Under 40 in Tennessee Titans vs. Minnesota Vikings

These are two of the best defenses in the league. Brian Flores has the Vikings playing very well on that side of the ball, and they rank third in scoring defense (17.4 PPG) and sixth in yards per play allowed (5.0 YPPA). Meanwhile, Tennessee has been exceptionally unlucky as the Titans rank 29th in scoring defense (26.7 PPG), but they rank first in total defense (273.6 YPG) and third in yards per play allowed (4.8 YPPA).

The big fear is turnovers here. Tennessee ranks 30th in turnovers on offense, and that has led to the Titans giving up more points than they should this season. Minnesota is just ahead of Tennessee, ranking 29th in turnovers, but that is offset by a defense that ranks first in takeaways. 

The Vikings are 7-2, but they have not been very effective on offense over their last five games. Sam Darnold has six touchdown passes and seven interceptions, and he has been sacked 16 times in that stretch.

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