Week 1 NFL Parlay Picks

If you’re looking to score big early in the NFL season, parlays are the way to go. Bettors can potentially make a fat stack of cash off a small bet with parlays, but each additional leg is fraught with danger. That’s why it’s almost always best to limit parlays to two or three legs, and that’s what I’ll be doing with my Week 1 NFL Parlay Picks.

Week 1 NFL Parlay Picks

Total Parlay of the Week

U49.5 in Philadelphia vs. Green Bay U48

in Buffalo vs. Arizona

$100 to win $272.59

My favorite total bet of the week is the Under in the first NFL regular season game in Brazil. The Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers will square off at Corinthians Arena in Sao Paulo, and the ‘Over’ has been heavily bet since the Week 1 NFL betting odds were released back in May. This total originally opened at 46, and it has since climbed 3.5 points. There has been a lot of optimism about Green Bay’s offense, and Philadelphia’s offense was fantastic at the start of the 2023 campaign. Additionally, field issues shouldn’t be a problem as we see in other non-American football stadiums as Corinthians Arena uses the same type of field turf as both the Packers and the Eagles.

However, this number is simply too high now. Philadelphia’s offense was solved over the second half of the season as Nick Sirianni was unable to scheme around Jalen Hurts’ inability to make the right read against the blitz. The Eagles averaged just 21.1 PPG after their bye week, and their offensive line took a major hit with the retirement of center Jason Kelce.

Meanwhile, Green Bay might have the most overrated offense in the league. Jordan Love performed very well in his first full season as a starter, and they have three talented young receivers in Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, and Romeo Doubs. The Packers are being talked about as a top five offense, but they didn’t rank in the top ten in scoring offense or total offense last season despite playing in a division with bad defenses.

As for the other leg in this parlay, many are calling for Arizona to have a resurgence in 2024. The Cardinals looked feisty under first-year head coach Jonathan Gannon at times, and Marvin Harrison Jr. could be the best rookie receiver we have seen since Randy Moss. There are still a lot of holes on this team though, and it may take some time for Kyler Murray and Harrison to find their groove. 

Buffalo’s offense could take a big step back without a true No. 1 receiver. Keon Coleman is talented, but he is an untested rookie, and neither Khalil Shakir nor Curtis Samuel can fill that role for Josh Allen. The lack of a goal line back is a potential problem that points to the under in this game too.

Underdog Parlay of the Week

Pittsburgh Steelers ML +156

Tennessee Titans ML +170

$100 to win $591.20

I previously discussed why I liked the Pittsburgh Steelers over the Atlanta Falcons in my Week 1 NFL Best Bets column here. Plenty of others are also on Pittsburgh thanks to Mike Tomlin’s propensity to get the best out of his teams, but there isn’t nearly as much optimism regarding the Tennessee Titans. Tennessee’s regular season win total is just 6.5, and most of the action has been on the Under as there isn’t a ton of buzz about Will Levis entering his second season.

However, the Titans have given Levis a ton of weapons. Veterans Tyler Boyd and Calvin Ridley were signed in the offseason to give the young quarterback three very experienced receivers and a speedster in Treylon Burks. The offensive line also received a big boost with the signing of center Lloyd Cushenberry III and the selection of No. 7 overall pick J.C. Latham in the 2024 NFL Draft.

There’s reason to be excited about Chicago’s future, but rookie quarterbacks don’t tend to fare well in their NFL debut. Caleb Williams could finally be the answer the Bears have needed for decades, yet this will be his first start, and he didn’t face a lot of quality defenses in the Big 12 and Pac 12. Expect him to struggle, and that will give Tennessee a real chance of leaving the Windy City with a Win.