Week 1 NFL Best Bets

We’ve waited almost seven months for America’s favorite sport to return and now football is finally upon us. Fans of every team (save possibly New England and Carolina) are optimistic about their squad’s chances coming into the 2024 campaign, and this is the time where upsets are rife. Only the Patriots are currently more than a six-point underdog in their season opener per the NFL betting odds, so there aren’t a lot of points you need to lay in Week 1. 

Week 1 NFL Betting Odds and Picks

New Orleans Saints -4 vs. Carolina Panthers

Although Derek Carr has proven to be a league average quarterback at best, he is good enough to lead the New Orleans Saints to a comfortable win over the Carolina Panthers in Week 1. Carr has some solid weapons to work with on the perimeter, and Alvin Kamara will be looking to bounce back after his most unproductive season yet in 2023. The offensive line is certainly a concern with Ryan Ramczyk sidelined for the season and first-round pick Taliese Fuaga questionable, but Carolina is the least talented team in the league with little depth and only one real playmaker on either side of the ball in Derrick Brown. 

Pittsburgh Steelers +3 at Atlanta Falcons

The Pittsburgh Steelers have had major questions on offense ever since Ben Roethlisberger retired at the end of the 2021 season. Kenny Pickett and Mason Rudolph both proved ineffective under center, so the Steelers brought in Russell Wilson and Justin Fields this offseason. Neither Wilson nor Fields are great options, but they are better than what this franchise had under center last season. Mike Tomlin knows how to get the most out of his teams, and this defense is stacked with Patrick Queen added to a roster that already includes T.J. Watt, Cam Heyward, and Minkah Fitzpatrick.

Atlanta should be better with a real quarterback under center, but Kirk Cousins has not fared well against the Steelers in his two previous starts against this team. Cousins completed less than 60% of his passes for 7.4 YPA with two touchdowns and four interceptions, and a good bit of his success came in garbage time. Additionally, Atlanta’s defense is likely to take a step back without its two best pass rushers from 2023, so look for Pittsburgh to start the season with a win. 

New York Giants +1.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings

The general consensus has been to make fun of the New York Giants for once again coming into a season with Daniel Jones under center. The Giants are expected to win six or fewer games this season, and Jones was awful before suffering a season-ending ACL injury in 2023. There is reason to have some optimism though as Malik Nabers may finally give Jones an elite No. 1 wide receiver, and there is a lot of draft capital along the offensive line. Furthermore, the defense got a big boost this offseason with the addition of standout pass rusher Brian Burns.

It's hard to be optimistic about Minnesota this season. The Vikings already lost J.J. McCarthy to a season-ending injury, so Sam Darnold will once again be asked to take the reins of an NFL team. Darnold is on his fourth team in the last five seasons, and he is just 21-35 as a starter with a completion percentage under 60% and 63 touchdowns compared to 56 interceptions. The Vikes may have an elite wide receiver in Justin Jefferson, but Darnold will be unable to use him as effectively as other quarterbacks would in this circumstance. 

Under 50 in Miami vs. Jacksonville

This game has the second-highest total by the Week 1 football betting odds. Miami was one of the most explosive teams early last season under Mike McDaniel, but the Dolphins cooled off dramatically on this side of the ball after the hot start. Teams were able to get a better handle on Tua Tagovailoa’s abilities, and opposing defensive coordinators seemed to get a better read on McDaniel’s schemes. Jacksonville’s new defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen helped turn Atlanta’s defense around last year and will look to do the same on the First Coast.

On the other side of the ball, it’s become rather clear that former No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence is simply mediocre. The Jaguars signed him to a huge extension in the hopes that he will take a big step forward in his fourth season, yet he is averaging just 6.8 YPA with 58 touchdowns and 39 interceptions over 50 games. Jacksonville has scored more than 27 points just nine times in those 50 games, and five of those nine times came against division opponents in the perennially bad AFC South.