Thursday Night Football - Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons Odds and Picks

First place in the NFC South will be on the line when the Atlanta Falcons host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football. Tampa Bay is currently sitting atop the division at 3-1 after pasting the Philadelphia Eagles last week, while Atlanta is riding high following a 58-yard field goal from Younghoe Koo that gave the Falcons a 26-24 win over the New Orleans Saints. The Bucs have won six of the last eight games in this series, but they are a slight underdog by the opening NFL betting odds here.

Week 5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1

Atlanta Falcons -1

Total 43.5

There has already been a little bit of action in favor of the visitors. Atlanta was initially a 2.5-point favorite, but some money has come in on Tampa Bay followings its strong performance on Sunday. Meanwhile, the total has risen by a point from 42.5.

This will be a very important game for the Falcons as four of their first five games are at home. If they end that stretch at 2-3, it does not bode well for their chances of making the postseason.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Overview

Baker Mayfield has rejuvenated his career in Tampa Bay. It looked like he was set to be a career backup after four up-and-down years in Cleveland, but he seemed to find a spark during his year with the Los Angeles Rams in 2022. Mayfield was a big surprise last year and led the Bucs to the Divisional Round of the playoffs, and he was rewarded with a three-year extension in March.

He has been fantastic when he has had time to throw this season. Mayfield completed 54 of 77 passes for 636 yards with six touchdowns and no interceptions while being sacked just three times in wins over Philadelphia and Washington. However, he was much worse against Denver and Detroit. He was sacked 12 times in those two games and completed 37 of 52 passes for 348 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. That makes it pretty obvious what Tampa Bay needs to happen on offense.

Mike Evans became the franchise’s all-time leading scorer last week and is still an elite receiver. Chris Godwin might be the go-to guy on Thursday though as Evans is questionable and Jalen McMillan has been ruled out. To make matters worse, the Bucs might be without three starting linemen with right tackle Luke Goedeke listed as out and left tackle Tristan Wirfs and center Graham Barton marked as questionable.

Every player in Tampa Bay’s two-deep along the defensive line is on the injury report. Nose tackle Vita Vea would be the biggest loss, but there might simply be a question of having enough bodies up front. Star safety Antoine Whitfield Jr. appears likely to miss his fourth straight game too.

Atlanta Falcons Overview

There aren’t nearly the same injury concerns for Atlanta. Bijan Robinson is questionable with a hamstring injury, but the only known absence on offense is right tackle Kaleb McGary.

Atlanta has been very disappointing on offense considering the expectations surrounding the team at the start of the season. Kirk Cousins was expected to unlock some of the threats that Desmond Ridder failed to take advantage of with this team, but Drake London and Kyle Pitts are still massive disappointments. Darnell Mooney is the leading receiver and has six of Atlanta’s nine receptions of 20 yards or more.

The ground game has seen some success though. Bijan Robinson is a solid dual threat running back, and Tyler Allgeier is averaging 6.1 YPC. They could have quite a bit of success against a banged up Tampa Bay defensive line on Thursday night. 

The Falcons are allowing just 4.9 yards per play on the season. They rank in the top ten in rushing and passing defense in terms of yards per play, but the key will be getting after the quarterback. Unfortunately, they rank dead last in the league in sack percentage and have just four sacks through four games.

Thursday Night Football Prediction

Everything seems to be going against Tampa Bay, but the fact that Atlanta can’t get after the quarterback will be its downfall. The Bucs will pull out a close win in a game that is higher scoring than the experts think.

Final Score: Tampa Bay 30, Atlanta 27