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It’s been a tale of two seasons for the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Cleveland Browns. Pittsburgh has had a much better season than anyone was expecting. The Steelers have already met their regular season win total per the preseason NFL futures odds, and they are poised to win at least 10 games for the 11th time under head coach Mike Tomlin. Meanwhile, the Browns have had one of the most disappointing seasons of any team in the NFL. Cleveland had high hopes with a preseason win total of 9, but Deshaun Watson has proven to be the worst trade acquisition in league history considering the price paid for his services plus his onerous contract.
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Week 12 Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns
Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5
Cleveland Browns +3.5
Total 36
Pittsburgh dominated the head-to-head with Cleveland for the better part of three decades, but the Browns have been more competitive in recent years. These rivals have split their last eight games. The Steelers were initially a four-point favorite by the opening NFL betting odds, yet we have seen some action on the Browns move that number down. The total has dramatically dropped from 40 to 36 as weather could play a factor in the proceedings.
Pittsburgh Steelers Overview
It took Russell Wilson some time to get on the field this year, but he has proven to be the most reliable quarterback the Steelers have had since Ben Roethlisberger. Wilson is in the tail end of his prime, yet he is completing 60.3% of his passes for 942 yards (7.8 YPA) with six touchdowns and two interceptions through four games. George Pickens has been the No. 1 receiver with a bullet, catching 48 passes for 728 yards and two touchdowns, but no other player has more than 300 receiving yards for the Steelers.
Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren are both averaging 4.0 YPC, and this run game gets a spark when Justin Fields lines up under center. We have seen a few packages with Fields running the ball in recent weeks, and that should continue on Thursday Night Football against Cleveland.
The Steelers rank second in scoring defense this season, allowing 16.2 PPG. They are a little further down the chain in terms of total defense, but there is no denying that this is an elite unit. T.J. Watt is favored to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year for the second time in four years, and he has 12 tackles for loss, 7.5 sacks, and four forced fumbles. Patrick Queen has been an excellent addition, while Minkah Fitzpatrick and Cam Heyward both continue to play at a high level.
Cleveland Browns Overview
Jameis Winston has been better than Deshaun Watson, but that’s not saying much. Winston is completing 61.4% of his passes for 1,047 yards (7.2 YPA) with seven touchdowns and three interceptions on the year. He has had to make do with the Browns trading away Amari Cooper, and to be fair, he has had little support from the ground game.
It’s clear that it’s going to take Nick Chubb another year to recover from his knee injury. Chubb has not been the same as we saw in the past, as he is averaging just 3.1 YPC. Jerome Ford has provided a bit of a spark at times, but he has yet to run for more than 64 yards in a game. To make matters worse for the Cleveland offense, starting left tackle Jedrick Wills Jr. has been ruled out, and starters Joel Bitonio, David Njoku, and Elijah Moore are all considered questionable.
The Browns have really struggled on defense aside from third-down conversion percentage. They are getting off the field at a pretty good clip at that point, so they are probably better than the overall stats indicate. This pass rush is very one-dimensional at this point though as Myles Garrett is really the only person that can get to the quarterback.
Thursday Night Football Prediction
Don’t expect a lot of scoring in this game. It will be a close, low-scoring game, but Pittsburgh will prevail thanks to some timely plays from Wilson.
Final Score: Pittsburgh 20, Cleveland 17
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