Discover the latest odds and expert picks for Thursday Night Football as the Miami Dolphins take on the Green Bay Packers. Don't miss out on the action!
A Thanksgiving tripleheader will conclude with the best game of the day. The Green Bay Packers will welcome the Miami Dolphins to Lambeau Field on Thursday Night Football after the requisite games involving Detroit and Dallas. Green Bay is feeling pretty good about its postseason chances with an 8-3 record, and Miami’s hopes are still alive despite a 2-6 start. The Dolphins have won three straight games, and they hammered the New England Patriots last week.
Bet the latest NFL odds Right Now!
Week 13 Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers
Miami Dolphins +3.5
Green Bay Packers -3.5
Total 47
There has been a little bit of line movement from the opening NFL betting odds. Green Bay was initially a three-point favorite, but that number has jumped to add a hook given Miami’s history playing outdoors in cold weather months. That has likely played a factor in the total dropping a half-point too considering Tua Tagovailoa is a warm-weather quarterback through and through. Tagovailoa grew up in Hawaii and played at Alabama before being drafted by Miami, and he is 0-7 in games played in weather of 40 degrees or less.
Miami Dolphins Overview
This offense has come alive once again with Tagovailoa back under center. Miami has scored at least 23 points in each of the last five weeks, and they have a point differential of +38 in that stretch. Tagovailoa has completed 76.9% of his passes for 1,277 yards with 11 touchdowns and a single interception in those five games, looking like one of the NFL’s top signal callers in the process.
His return has unlocked Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle once again. Hill and Waddle disappeared while Tagovailoa was recovering from a concussion, but both receivers are a major part of the offense once more. Tight end Jonnu Smith has also greatly benefited from Tagovailoa’s return as he has 27 receptions for 299 yards and three touchdowns in Miami’s last five games.
Of course, a real passing threat has also helped the run game thrive too. Second-year running back De’Von Achane had just 39 carries for 140 yards and no touchdowns with Tagovailoa sidelined, but he has been much more dangerous since his return.
Miami’s defense is better than you might think given the Dolphins’ record. They rank 11th in scoring defense (21.5 PPG) and seventh in total defense (304.5 YPG). The run defense has been average, but the pass defense has been great with the secondary surrendering just 6.6 YPA. However, there are some real concerns coming into this game as Kendall Fuller has been ruled out with a concussion and Jalen Ramsey is questionable on a short week.
Green Bay Packers Overview
Jordan Love has had his share of ups and downs. Love is completing just 61.8% of his passes for 2,244 yards with 18 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He has completed 14 or fewer passes in three of his last four games, but the Packers keep winning even though he isn’t really lighting it up.
The ground game has been very good though. Green Bay ranks seventh in the NFL with 4.8 YPC and third with 151.6 YPG. Josh Jacobs should surpass the 1,000-yard mark on Thursday night, and second-year running back Emanuel Wilson has been just as effective when he has spelled Jacobs.
Green Bay has an above average defense, giving up 20.3 PPG and 319.3 YPG. The Packers have done a good job forcing turnovers, and Xavier McKinney looks set to be named an All Pro with seven picks while ranking fourth in team tackles. Starters Edgerrin Cooper and Jaire Alexander have been ruled out of this game due to injury though.
Thursday Night Football Prediction
If this game was in Miami, I would like the Dolphins. However, the struggle in cold weather is real for these Florida teams. Tagovailoa has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns in cold weather over his career, and snow is also currently in the forecast. The Packers will have a significant home field advantage with the crowd getting involved early and often, so I’ll back the hosts.
Final Score: Green Bay 27, Miami 17
Bet the latest NFL odds Right Now!
