Get ready for Thursday Night Football with our comprehensive analysis of the Denver Broncos at New Orleans Saints. Explore odds and expert betting picks.
The New Orleans Saints looked like world beaters through the first two weeks of the 2024 NFL season. New Orleans smashed Carolina and Dallas by a combined 62 points, and the Saints the best offense in the league at that time. However, the Saints have since dropped four straight games. After scoring 91 points in their two blowout wins, they have managed to score just 76 points over the last four weeks. Dennis Allen is now looking to lead the Saints back into the win column, but his team is a home underdog per the NFL betting odds against the Denver Broncos.
Week 6 Denver Broncos at New Orleans Saints
Denver Broncos -2
New Orleans Saints +2
Total 37
Early action was on Denver as the spread opened as a pick ‘em. That’s despite how the Broncos looked on offense last week in a loss to the Los Angeles Chargers. The total is the second-lowest number on the board given how these offenses have performed the last few weeks.
Denver Broncos Overview
Bo Nix is just a rookie, but he has had a Blake Bortles-like start to his NFL career. For years, Bortles was known for struggling through three quarters before putting up solid stats in garbage time when the game was out of reach for the Jacksonville Jaguars. Nix has completed 61.1% of his passes for 1,082 yards (5.5 YPA) with five touchdowns and five interceptions despite being sacked just nine times in over 200 dropbacks. However, he is just 57 of 97 for 395 yards (4.1 YPA) with two interceptions and no touchdowns in the first half through six games.
With Nix at the helm, the Broncos are averaging just 18.7 PPG. They would be the worst team at picking up third-down conversions if Cleveland wasn’t historically bad in that area, and the pass game is ranked 30th despite ranking 4th in pass protection. Courtland Sutton has made some nice catches at times, bus his catch rate is under 60%. The run game hasn’t been much help either with Javonte Williams averaging 3.6 YPA and Jaleel McLaughlin averaging 3.2 YPA.
The Broncos have been excellent on defense though. They rank fourth in total defense (284.3 YPG) and fourth in scoring defense (16.0 PPGA). Denver has been excellent against the run and the pass as Pat Surtain II might be the best cornerback in the league. However, there is a concern this week as the Broncos’ top three cornerbacks on the depth chart are questionable to play.
New Orleans Saints Overview
Rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler had some nice moments in his season debut against Tampa Bay last week. There was some buzz surrounding Rattler after the preseason, but he was going to sit and wait until Derek Carr suffered an injury that will keep him out for a significant amount of time. Rattler completed 22 of 40 passes for 243 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions in the loss. The 24-year-old was a blue-chip quarterback coming out of high school, yet he struggled with consistency throughout his collegiate career.
New Orleans mirrored its young quarterback’s inconsistency last week. The Saints erased a 17-point deficit by scoring 27 points in the second quarter, but they failed to score a point in any other quarter in a 51-27 loss to Tampa Bay. Now, they could be without virtually all their playmakers on offense as Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, Cedrick Wilson Jr., and Taysom Hill are listed as questionable or worse on the injury report.
The Saints rank dead last in total defense, surrendering 395.8 YPG. They have been good at stopping opponents in the red zone and forcing interceptions though, ranking second in the league in both categories. The play of the secondary has been surprisingly bad considering Marshon Lattimore, Tyrann Mathieu, and second-round pick Kool-Aid McKinstry have been healthy.
Thursday Night Football Prediction
This is going to be a rough game to watch. Two struggling rookie quarterbacks are going to make plenty of mistakes in a low-scoring affair. However, I trust Denver’s defense far more than any other unit, so I’ll back the Broncos.
Final Score: Denver 20, New Orleans 13
