Get ready for Sunday Night Football! Explore the latest odds and expert picks for the Washington Commanders vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers matchup.
- Date & Time
- January 10th, 2025
- Teams
It’s been almost two decades since the last time the Washington Commanders won a playoff game. Joe Gibbs was on his second tenure with the team, and Washington went south to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Wild Card Round on January 7, 2006. Mark Brunell was the quarterback for Washington that day, and he completed just 7 of 15 passes for 41 yards and an interception, but the Redskins were able to beat the Buccaneers 17-10. Washington had just nine first downs and 120 total yards of offense, yet Chris Simms and Tampa Bay turned the ball over three times, and the legendary Sean Taylor returned a fumble 51 yards for a touchdown.
We should see more offense with NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Jayden Daniels and Baker Mayfield under center, leading to this game having the highest total by the NFL betting odds in the Wild Card Round.
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Wild Card Round Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Washington Commanders +3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 Total 50.5
There has been little action on either the side or the total since the opening football betting lines were released on Sunday evening. Tampa Bay was a typical field-goal favorite despite hammering Washington back in Week 1. The total has ticked down slightly from 51 to 50.5 over the course of the week.
Washington Commanders Overview
Jayden Daniels has been the most impressive rookie quarterback of the six that were drafted in the first 12 picks of the 2024 NFL Draft. Daniels is one of two rookie quarterbacks to lead their team to the playoffs, and he locked up NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year accolades weeks ago. The 24-year-old registered the fourth best QBR (70.6) in the league this season, and he completed 69% of his passes for 3,568 yards (7.4 YPA) with 25 touchdowns and nine interceptions.
Daniels is already one of the best running quarterbacks in the game too. He finished the season running for 891 yards (6.0 YPC) and six touchdowns, beating out Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler in that department. Terry McLaurin was his top target as one of the most underrated receivers in the league with 82 receptions for 1,096 yards and 13 touchdowns. Tight end Zach Ertz is someone to watch in this offense too, but no one else has more than three receiving touchdowns for the Commanders this season.
A strong pass rush has been the key to Washington’s defensive identity for the last several seasons. Daron Payne and the recently returned Jonathan Allen do a good job occupying blockers in the middle of the defensive line, allowing linebackers Dante Fowler Jr. and Frankie Luvu the opportunity to get to the quarterback. Bobby Wagner remains an elite middle linebacker too, but opposing teams have been able to run on this front seven. Washington is allowing 4.8 YPC and 137.5 YPG, ranking in the bottom five in both categories.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Overview
Baker Mayfield just finished with the best numbers of his career despite not having Chris Godwin for most of the season. Mayfield completed 71.4% of his passes for 4,500 yards (7.9 YPA) with 41 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. He is the type of quarterback that will make a couple mistakes per game that could lead to turnovers, but he has no fear and will continue to try and make things happen. Mike Evans is once again the top target in this offense with 74 catches for 1,004 yards and 11 touchdowns, recording his 11th straight 1,000-yard season despite missing three games due to injury.
The key for the Buccaneers will be their run game on Sunday night. Rookie Bucky Irving has been sharp all year, running for 1,122 yards (5.4 YPC) and eight touchdowns. Rachaad White has been pretty reliable too, and Mayfield can make things happen with his legs. Pro Bowl left tackle Tristan Wirfs is questionable with a quad injury, but he is expected to play on Sunday night.
Tampa Bay’s defense is not as strong as it was in prior seasons. However, the Buccaneers still have three very talented players in Vita Vea, Lavonte David, and Antoine Winfield Jr. Vea is the lynchpin in the front seven, but Winfield could have a bigger impact on this game. Jamel Dean and Mike Edwards are both questionable, so the Bucs will ask a lot of Winfield here.
Sunday Night Football Prediction
It’s hard for me to back a rookie quarterback on the road in the playoffs. A rookie quarterback hasn’t led his team to a road playoff victory in at least 10 years, and I don’t trust Daniels to break that trend.
Final Score: Tampa Bay 31, Washington 20
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