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- Date & Time
- December 27th, 2024
- Teams
Jayden Daniels is a shoo-in to be named NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year at this point. Daniels is a massive favorite over Bo Nix with two weeks left in the regular season as the Washington Commanders can win 11 or more games for the first time in 33 years with a victory in one of their last two games. One more win will assure them a spot in the postseason too, and that has them favored on the NFL betting line over the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday Night Football. Atlanta needs to win in order to stay in front of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC South race, but a victory would also give Falcons the head-to-head tiebreaker in a potential tiebreaker scenario with the Commanders.
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Week 17 Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders
Atlanta Falcons +4 Washington Commanders -4 Total 47.5
The early action has been on Atlanta in this game. Washington opened as a 4.5-point favorite on the initial football betting odds, but the line now sits at a flat 4. We have seen the total rise a half-point from 46.5 too.
Atlanta Falcons Overview
Michael Penix Jr. was able to secure a win in his first career NFL start, but Penix was not the reason why the Falcons beat the New York Giants last week. Penix completed 18 of 27 passes for 202 yards with an interception, and he failed to record a passing or rushing touchdown. Instead, it was the defense and the ground game that propelled Atlanta to a win. The Falcons had two interception returns for touchdowns, and Bijan Robinson ran for two touchdowns in a 34-7 victory.
Robinson and Tyler Allgeier have been a competent duo on the ground. Both running backs are averaging 4.6 YPC, and Robinson is a real threat in the passing game too with 56 receptions for 420 yards and a touchdown. Drake London and Darnell Mooney should both be 1,000-yard receivers, giving Penix two solid options even with tight end Kyle Pitts continuing to underperform.
Atlanta ranks in the top ten in yards per pass and yards per run, but the Falcons are allowing 23.3 PPG. They have struggled to get off the field on third down, and they have been the worst team in the NFL at getting to the passer with a measly 26 sacks in 15 games. The Falcons are missing a lot of their depth in the two-deep too, so it won’t be easy to stop Daniels.
Washington Commanders Overview
Rookie Jayden Daniels has been excellent this year, and he has excelled when teams bring pressure against him. That will put the Falcons in a tough spot given their inability to get to the quarterback. Daniels is completing 69.7% of his passes for 3,303 yards (7.6 YPA) with 22 touchdowns and eight interceptions, He is also the Commanders’ leading rusher with 737 yards (5.8 YPC) with six touchdowns.
Washington’s top receivers are banged up. Top option Terry McLaurin is set to be Washington’s leading receiver for the sixth straight season, but he is considered questionable with an ankle injury. Noah Brown is on injured reserve, and Dyami Brown’s status is in the air too because of a hamstring issue. Veteran tight end Zach Ertz is available, but he has not played a big role in the offense the last two weeks with just four total targets.
The Commanders are pretty healthy on defense given where we are at in the season. Jonathan Allen could return after missing the last two-and-a-half months with a torn pectoral muscle, and that would give the defensive line a big boost. Daron Payne continues to play at a high level though, and the linebackers have been very good too. Washington ranks 10th in total defense, as the Commanders are very good at getting to the passer with 39 sacks. Danite Fowler Jr. and Frankie Luvu might both end the year with 10 or more sacks, as the defensive line does a good job occupying blockers.
Sunday Night Football Prediction
I will need to see a lot more out of Penix before I believe in the Falcons. He didn’t turn many heads his first time out, and that was against a team that was actively tanking. Penix could really struggle against a Washington team with a lot to play for on Sunday night.
Final Score: Washington 27, Atlanta 17
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