NFL Wild Card Round Best Bets

Another 2-2 performance in the final week of the NFL regular season ensured that I would finish with a winning record over my 70 plays. My Saturday picks were both losers, but Cleveland did stay within the number against Baltimore until the last seven minutes of the fourth quarter. It was absurd to see the Ravens close as a 20-point favorite by the NFL betting odds, but they covered all numbers for bettors. The other Saturday play never had a chance though as Pittsburgh and Cincinnati combined for just 36 points in a game where the total was 48. Russell Wilson and the Steelers offense were anemic in managing just 3.3 yards per play, giving Yinzers serious concerns before the playoffs.

The good news is that I won both my Sunday plays. Carolina won outright against Atlanta in a game where the Panthers were nearly a double-digit underdog. Bryce Young had one of the best games of his career, accounting for five total touchdowns in a 44-38 overtime victory. There was never a doubt that the Los Angeles Chargers would cover the number against the Las Vegas Raiders either. The Chargers won by two touchdowns in a game where they were favored by just 5.5 points in the middle of the week. That’s the note I’m hoping to strike in the playoffs. 

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Regular Season Record 36-33-1 ATS

NFL Wild Card Round Betting Odds and Picks

Pittsburgh Steelers +10 at Baltimore Ravens

Although Pittsburgh’s offense hasn’t looked good for a month, Baltimore should not be a double-digit favorite by the NFL betting odds in this game. The Steelers and Ravens tend to play close, low-scoring games, and their nine previous meetings were decided by one score prior to their Week 16 showdown. Lamar Jackson’s postseason struggles are well-documented, and the familiarity between these teams will lead to these teams playing a closer game than the oddsmakers believe. 

Buffalo Bills -8 vs. Denver Broncos

Josh Allen will be the NFL MVP this season, and the Buffalo Bills should roll in their first-round showdown with the Denver Broncos. Buffalo is much better on offense, and Denver has a rookie quarterback that will likely struggle in Bo Nix. Although Nix performed better than I believed he would in his first NFL season, he can still be very mistake prone at times. He has thrown six interceptions in his last five games, and Nix is significantly less efficient on the road than he is at home. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 vs. Washington Commanders

I’m going against the other rookie quarterback starting for his team in the playoffs this weekend too. Jayden Daniels will be named NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, as the Washington Commanders had their best regular season performance in over three decades. They closed out their season with five straight wins, but Daniels hasn’t exactly been lighting up the stat sheet. Additionally, it seems like he is banged up and may have hit the rookie wall.

Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has been very resilient. Baker Mayfield is having an excellent season, throwing for 4,500 yards and 41 touchdowns. Mike Evans is still extremely reliable, and rookie running back Bucky Irving has really made a name for himself this season. The Buccaneers have a much more talented defense than their counterparts too, so I will back Tampa Bay as a short home favorite.

Minnesota Vikings -1 at Los Angeles Rams

Even with Minnesota finishing the regular season at 14-3, the oddsmakers are still downplaying the Vikings’ success. Minnesota was the most surprising team of the season, and that will lead to Kevin O’Connell being named NFL Coach of the Year. Sam Darnold has rejuvenated his career thanks to Jordan Addison and Justin Jefferson, and defensive coordinator Brian Flores might end up getting another shot to be a head coach due to the Vikes’ success on this side of the ball. 

It was impressive to see the Los Angeles Rams bounce back after a 1-4 start to win the NFC West. However, this team still has a ton of holes. The defense has come along nicely but still needs some help, and the offensive line is a bit of a mess too. 

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