NFL Week 9 Best Bets

It appeared that I would have a winning week locked up on Sunday, but instead I finished Week 8 with a 2-2 mark after Green Bay blew a 27-17 fourth quarter lead against the Jacksonville Jaguars. That led to the Packers failing to cover the football betting line although they won the game. The Monday Night Football game went over the total to give me my second loss of the week, but my two winners won with ease. Cleveland upset Baltimore despite being close to a double-digit underdog per the NFL betting odds, while the Las Vegas Raiders managed to stay in front of the number for all but three minutes in their loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. 

YTD 13-17 ATS

Week 9 NFL Betting Odds and Picks

Los Angeles Chargers -1 at Cleveland Browns

People are giving way too much respect to the Cleveland Browns after one game with Jameis Winston under center. Cleveland was clearly being treated too lightly, but the Browns should be at least a field goal underdog against the Los Angeles Chargers this week. The Chargers are playing well, and they are coming off their most impressive win of the season.

Winston is a roller coaster of a quarterback, and the Browns are about to experience some of the dips after reaching the height last week against the Ravens. The Chargers rank first in the league in scoring defense (13.0 PPG), and they boast one of the best ball hawking safeties in Derwin James. 

Minnesota Vikings -5 vs. Indianapolis Colts

Many bettors are jumping off the Minnesota bandwagon after two straight losses. The Vikings were the most surprising team of the first month with a 5-0 record, but they have struggled on defense since their bye week. They surrendered 31 points to Detroit and 30 points to the Los Angeles Rams on Thursday Night Football so some of the shine has come off defensive coordinator Brian Flores.

However, the Vikings are in a great position here. Minnesota has had three extra days to prepare for the Indianapolis Colts, and their opponents are taking on water. Indianapolis is benching the struggling Anthony Richardson for veteran Joe Flacco, and you know what you get from Flacco at this point. Flores will come up with a scheme to really hamper the Colts, leading to a comfortable victory for the Vikes.

Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams Over 48.5

Although the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams typically play low scoring games, I expect this tilt to be rather high scoring. The Seahawks do not have a good defense, and they were gashed by the Buffalo Bills last week. This has been a typical problem for Seattle in recent years, so Geno Smith has had to be a bit of a gunslinger.

Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Rams are still trying to find their defensive identity with Aaron Donald retired. Donald covered up a lot of holes on this team with his ability to occupy double teams while still being incredibly effective. This secondary is allowing 8.1 YPA (31st in the NFL), and they rank in the bottom half of the league in almost every category.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +9 at Kansas City Chiefs

It may seem crazy to keep betting against the only undefeated team in the NFL. However, the Kansas City Chiefs haven’t been that dominant despite their 7-0 record. They are just +50 on the season, as Patrick Mahomes continues to struggle with just eight touchdown passes through seven games. The Chiefs have been racked by injuries, and they are trying out some new things with different players in the lineup. Kansas City has been simply content with winning as a result.

Tampa Bay is in a tough spot. Chris Godwin is out for the season, and Mike Evans is going to miss this game. That really limits Baker Mayfield’s options, but he is starting to develop a rapport with his other receivers. Mayfield led the Buccaneers to over 430 total yards last week against Atlanta despite not having any of his top three receivers, so I think he will be able to create just enough offense to keep it within the number.