NFL Week 6 Best Bets

The good news is that I was able to refrain from having another winless week. Minnesota was able to win and cover across the pond against the dysfunctional New York Jets on Sunday. However, I lost my other two games and ended up with a losing week. As a Pittsburgh fan, I’m a little salty that my Steelers were unable to hold on against the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday Night Football. The defense appeared to just run out of gas as Dallas scored touchdowns on a 16-play, 90-yard drive and a 15-play, 70-yard drive to win in the final seconds. On the bellwether Monday Night Football game, the Super Bowl champions finally looked the part and easily covered against the New Orleans Saints so that I once again ended up with a losing week.

YTD 8-11 ATS

Week 6 NFL Betting Odds and Picks

Green Bay Packers -5 vs. Arizona Cardinals

Although I’m not a full believer in the Green Bay Packers just yet, I do believe this is a good spot for them against the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday. Jordan Love is starting to blossom and shrugged off the first pick-six of his career to lead the Packers past the Los Angeles Rams last week. Green Bay’s offense ranks eighth in scoring (25.6 PPG), fourth in total offense (392.6 YPG), and fourth in yards per play (6.2 YPP). Love is still a little too turnover prone, and the Packers have to figure out their kicking game woes, but they should be able to effectively move the ball against Arizona.

As for the Cardinals, they erased a 13-point halftime deficit to beat the San Francisco 49ers last week, but San Francisco repeatedly shot itself in the foot. Rookie receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. has only had one great performance (back in Week 2), and he otherwise is catching less than 50% of the balls thrown his way. Kyler Murray has been pretty mediocre aside from that one game in Week 2, and the Packers lead the league in interceptions forced.   

Houston Texans -7 at New England Patriots

The Houston Texans are 4-1, but they have a negative point differential on the season. They were blasted by the Minnesota Vikings in Week 3, while their four wins have been by a combined 15 points. They have yet to win a game by more than six points, so at first glance, this looks like a bad bet on the road.

However, the Patriots have really fallen off after an upset win over Cincinnati in Week 1. They rank second-to-last in almost every offensive category with 12.4 PPG, 250.8 YPG, and 4.3 yards per play. It was only a matter of time before rookie quarterback Drake Maye stepped in for the ineffective Jacoby Brissett, and he will be doing so on Sunday.

This is an awful time to bring in Maye though. Houston has the fourth-best defense in the NFL, and the Texans are excellent at getting after the quarterback. They made fellow rookie Caleb Williams’ life miserable in Week 2, sacking him seven times and forcing two interceptions, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a similar performance from Maye on Sunday.

Under 41.5 in New Orleans vs. Tampa Bay

It took a couple weeks, but the New Orleans’ offense is performing at the level we all assumed it would in 2024. Derek Carr has been below average the last few weeks, and now he will miss at least a few weeks with an oblique injury. That means either second- year Jake Haener or rookie Spencer Rattler will get the start on Sunday against Tampa Bay.

Meanwhile, the Buccaneers might not be fully prioritizing football at the moment. Hurricane Milton looks set to be the most dangerous storm that Tampa Bay has seen in over 100 years, so it’s natural for the players to not fully be locked into this game. More often than not, that leads to a fast-paced game, so I believe the Under will be a solid play here. This is a game on short rest for the Saints too as they played on Monday Night Football, so there won’t be time for a lot of install with a new quarterback.