NFL Week 4 Best Bets

It was another 2-2 ATS week for me on Sunday. I was totally correct in backing the New York Giants as a six-point underdog to the Cleveland Browns per the NFL Betting Odds as the Giants won outright in Ohio. However, I was a bit fortunate to win with the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday Night Football. It was a pretty even game that the Chiefs held on to win and cover despite a strong push in the opening and closing quarters from the hosts.

On the losing side of the ledger, the Chicago Bears fell to the Indianapolis Colts despite outgaining their opponent. Chicago turned the ball over three times and missed a field goal, and those miscues proved costly in a 21-16 loss. The second loss was a bit tough too as I took the over in the game between Detroit and Arizona in the desert. The Lions and Cardinals exchanged touchdowns on the first three possessions and combined for 30 points at halftime. However, there were only three points scored in the second half. 

YTD 7-5 ATS

Week 4 NFL Betting Odds and Picks

Houston Texans -7 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jacksonville Jaguars are one of just three teams that has yet to win a game this season. Jacksonville lost close games to Miami and Cleveland, but the Jaguars got their doors blown off by the Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football. Buffalo put up 34 points in the first half, and Jacksonville was totally unable to answer on offense.

There are now major questions surrounding Trevor Lawrence. He signed a massive extension this offseason despite failing to live up to his hype as the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. Lawrence has been a bottom ten quarterback by every metric through three games, leading to growing rumblings throughout the fanbase. This is a situation that could easily get away from the Jaguars, so I’ll lay the touchdown with the Texans at home.

Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 at Indianapolis Colts

Mike Tomlin continues to prove why he is one of the best coaches in the NFL on an annual basis. In nearly two decades at the helm in Blitzburgh, Tomlin has yet to record a losing season. The Steelers are off to an unexpected 3-0 start thanks to a stellar performance from the defense and just enough from Justin Fields under center.

Anthony Richardson is very talented, but he’s still incredibly raw. The second-year quarterback started just 12 games at the University of Florida, and he only started four games last season before suffering a season-ending injury. This will be just his 20th start since high school, so I expect the Pittsburgh defense to be too much for him.

Under 39 in San Francisco vs. New England

Although the San Francisco 49ers are the biggest favorite per the NFL Betting Lines this week, I would rather bet the Under than lay the points with the Niners against the New England Patriots. San Francisco’s defense should be able to swallow up veteran Jacoby Brissett as the Patriots are averaging just 13 PPG while Brissett has completed just 60.9% of his passes for 368 yards (5.3 YPA) with a touchdown and no interceptions. 

New England’s defense has been solid considering the lack of offensive production, so we shouldn’t see a lot of points in this game. San Francisco is already dealing with a ton of injuries on offense too, and Brock Purdy is currently considered questionable with a lower back injury.

Arizona Cardinals -3 vs. Washington Commanders

Everyone is singing Jayden Daniels’ praises after a fantastic performance on Monday Night Football in a win over the Cincinnati Bengals. However, Daniels is still a rookie (albeit an experienced one), and he will now have to face an opponent on the road after a short week. That’s not a recipe for success, especially considering Washington’s issues on defense.

Washington ranks in the bottom five in most major defensive categories. The Commanders are allowing 29.3 PPG (29th in the NFL), 377.3 YPG (29th in the NFL), 6.6 YPP (31st in the NFL), and rank dead last in points per play and third down conversion rate. Kyler Murray should light up this defense.