NFL Week 3 Best Bets

I had a great handle on Week 2 of the NFL season, but my Best Bets only went 2-2. My read on the Dallas-New Orleans game was way off. I believed Dallas would cover and the Under would hit, but I was very wrong on both aspects. The Saints continue to be the most surprising team of the season, and a lot of eyes will be on them when they face the Philadelphia Eagles. On a positive note, I was absolutely right on both Pittsburgh and Atlanta covering with the Falcons even winning outright as a touchdown underdog per the NFL betting odds. Houston covered the closing number too, but I posted the bet when the Texans were a bigger favorite, and they failed to cash against the opener.

YTD 5-3 ATS

Week 3 NFL Betting Odds and Picks

Chicago Bears +1.5 at Indianapolis Colts

The Indianapolis Colts have been shockingly bad at stopping the run so far this season. Indy has the worst run defense in the NFL by a mile, allowing 237 YPG on the ground. No one else is allowing over 200 YPG rushing, and only two other teams are surrendering more than 164 rushing YPG. Somehow this unit is about to be even worse with DeForest Buckner going on injured reserve with an ankle injury too, so Chicago might be able to have a field day on the ground.

That would be a huge boost for rookie Caleb Williams. It seems clear that the Bears have a lot of pieces in place if they can finally find the right quarterback, and they are going to give the No. 1 overall pick a lot of leeway. This defense has looked feisty, so they stand a good chance of moving to 2-1.

New York Giants +6 at Cleveland Browns

It’s been hard to watch the New York Giants so far this season. Brian Daboll is one of the favorites to be the first coach fired per the NFL futures odds, as the Giants are off to an 0-2 start. To make matters worse, they became the first team in history to lose a game while scoring three touchdowns without allowing any touchdowns last week against Washington.

They haven’t been as bad as you might think from the media reaction though. Meanwhile, Cleveland continues to be a mess on offense as Deshaun Watson currently ranks 29th in the NFL in QBR. This is too many points for the Browns to be laying, even if the Giants have looked bad.

Arizona Cardinals vs. Detroit Lions Over 52.5

This game has the highest total of any matchup in Week 3. Arizona and Detroit both have high-powered offenses, and they can put points on the board. Neither defense is that strong either, so we could see a shootout in the desert.

Marvin Harrison Jr. showed off his impressive skillset in just his second game as a pro. Harrison caught four passes for 130 yards and two touchdowns in the first quarter of a rout against the Los Angeles Rams, and Kyler Murray might be poised to have an excellent season as a result.

I expect Detroit to have a bounceback game after a disappointing home loss to Tampa Bay this weekend. The Lions dominated the Bucs on the stat sheet with more than twice as many yards and almost twice as many first downs, but they only managed to put 16 points on the board. Turnovers and an ability to score in the red zone led to a relatively low total given the yards and TOP so take the over.

Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 at Atlanta Falcons

This might be the most public play on the board in Week 3. Kansas City is 2-0 and will always be a public favorite with Patrick Mahomes under center. The Chiefs once again look vulnerable in the early going and only barely squeaked past Cincinnati last week, as their offensive line play does not look good, especially at left tackle. That has led to a lower line than might be expected, but the Chiefs are the play.

Atlanta is incredibly fortunate not to be 0-2. The Falcons haven’t looked sharp on either side of the ball, and they will also be playing on a short week.