NFL Week 18 Best Bets

I was very fortunate to go 2-2 ATS last week with my NFL Best Bets. That has me in great shape to finish the regular season with a winning record, as I just need to win one of my final four picks in Week 18. The two losers in Week 17 never had a chance. The New York Jets were absolutely dismantled by the Buffalo Bills, and the game between the New York Giants and the Indianapolis Colts sailed over the total due to Drew Lock having the game of his life. My bet on the Washington Commanders should not have won as the Commanders were behind the number most of the game and were fortunate to find the end zone in overtime rather than settle for a field goal. As for the Detroit Lions, they erased multiple deficits and survived a strong game from Brock Purdy (despite two interceptions) to cover the number and move to 14-2. 

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YTD 34-31-1 ATS

Week 18 NFL Betting Odds and Picks

Cleveland Browns +17.5 at Baltimore Ravens

This is just too many points. Yes, the Baltimore Ravens can wrap up the No. 3 seed with a win, and they will be motivated to do just that, but it doesn’t matter if they win by 1 or 17. This is a team that just wants to check the box and get the win before the postseason starts, and I think they will run a very vanilla scheme on both sides of the ball against a Cleveland team that has not been competitive with Dorian Thomson-Robinson at quarterback. The Browns have scored a total of 16 points in their last three games, and DTR has no touchdown passes and six interceptions. Furthermore, he is limited with a calf injury here. 

Over 48 in Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals

There were 82 points scored when Cincinnati and Pittsburgh met in Ohio earlier back on December 1. Russell Wilson had his best game of the season against a bad Bengals’ defense, and I think we will see either Wilson or Justin Fields put some points on Cincinnati once again. Pittsburgh will be motivated to try and win this game even if Baltimore beats Cleveland earlier in the day, and Cincinnati has to win this game in order to potentially make it into the postseason. Joe Burrow has been torching defenses this entire season, so I think we will see him do that against Pittsburgh once more on Saturday night in the Steel City. 

Carolina Panthers +9 at Atlanta Falcons

Much like with Cleveland, this is too many points considering what we have seen from Atlanta this season. The Falcons have only won two games by more than six points, and although one of those victories was at Carolina back in Week 6, these teams are very different than they were two-and-a-half months ago. The Panthers look much more competent, while the Falcons aren’t as explosive with a rookie under center even if Kirk Cousins was really struggling under center.

Motivation is another reason why I like Carolina in this game. The Falcons will need to win and have Tampa Bay lose to New Orleans in order to make the playoffs. The Buccaneers are a two-touchdown favorite per the NFL betting odds, and they have been jumping on opponents early in recent weeks. I can see the Bucs pulling ahead by two scores early, taking the air out of the sails of the Falcons as they scoreboard watch on the sidelines. 

Los Angeles Chargers -5.5 at Las Vegas Raiders

I considered only betting underdogs this week as favorites covered at a historic rate in Week 17. However, I just couldn’t resist backing the Los Angeles Chargers as under a touchdown favorite per the football betting line. The Chargers will absolutely want to try and claim the No. 5 seed, if possible, as they would be favored over the Houston Texans but would be a sizeable underdog on the road against the Baltimore Ravens. Jim Harbaugh is the type of coach that will have his guys at full throttle even in the last week of the regular season, while Las Vegas has little to play for other than draft position. 

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