NFL Week 16 Best Bets

For the first time since September, I am over .500 on my Weekly NFL Best Bets. My lone loser in Week 15 was the Over in Houston and Miami. The Texans and Dolphins simply didn’t generate enough offense, and Tua Tagovailoa was unable to throw for more than five yards down the field. Tagovailoa was awful and threw three interceptions in a game that finished with just 32 points.

Fortunately, my other wagers were all winners. Philadelphia hammered Pittsburgh as expected, leaving no doubt who was the best team in the Keystone State. Denver survived an early scare from Indianapolis to cruise to a win thanks in no small part to a major mistake by Jonathan Taylor, and the Under in the Minnesota/Chicago Monday Night Football game won despite a 19-point fourth quarter. 

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Week 16 NFL Betting Odds and Picks

Houston Texans +3 at Kansas City Chiefs

I do not think Patrick Mahomes will play on Saturday against the Houston Texans. There is no need to risk Mahomes’ health when the Kansas City Chiefs are already 13-1, as they have a two-game lead on the Buffalo Bills in the race for the No. 1 seed in the AFC. The Chiefs will have to play on Wednesday too, so I believe they will just play Carson Wentz for the next two weeks and then see whether or not to play Mahomes in the season finale, especially considering left tackle D.J. Humphries is questionable to play.

Houston was not great against Miami, but the Texans can get the job done against Carson Wentz. The former Philadelphia Eagles’ QB has seen very little action the last two seasons, but he is limited and very susceptible to blitzes by opposing defenses. 

Carolina Panthers +4.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals

Last week against the Dallas Cowboys, the Carolina Panthers were favored for the first time in almost two full years. I bet against Carolina as that was a little too much respect for the Panthers, and they laid an egg against the Cowboys. However, I’m backing the Panthers and believe they will bounce back against the Arizona Cardinals this week.

Bryce Young was atrocious last Sunday. Young threw two interceptions, fumbled twice, and he was sacked six times by the Cowboys. That completely stalled out the offense, and the only play that was over 20 yards was an 83-yard touchdown pass to Jalen Coker. Carolina must perform better on offense against Arizona if the Panthers hope to pull off the upset, and I think they will as the Cardinals are just 2-4 on the road. Arizona has allowed at least 23 points in all but one of their road games, so look for Carolina to score enough to stay within the number. 

New England Patriots +14 at Buffalo Bills

This is an awful lot of points for Buffalo to be laying at this point of the season. The Bills have locked up their division, and they are coming off a big road win in Detroit over the Lions last week. They were on the road for back-to-back weeks before returning to Buffalo, so I think there will be a little bit of a letdown.

Additionally, the New England Patriots have been playing a little better as Drake Maye develops under center. Maye has a passer rating of 90.2 in his last fie games, and the Patriots have only lost by more than 13 points once in that stretch. This is not a good team, and I don’t expect the Patriots to win outright, but I do think they can stay within two touchdowns of the Bills. 

Green Bay Packers -13.5 vs. New Orleans Saints

Some fans are excited for Spencer Rattler to start for the New Orleans Saints on Monday Night Football after he led his team to a fourth quarter comeback that almost resulted in a last-second win over the Washington Commanders last week. However, there is a reason that Rattler has been languishing behind Jake Haener on the bench. Rattler is an incredibly inconsistent quarterback, and he will make some mistakes against the Packers in Lambeau Field. Rattler is completing just 57.5% of his passes for 5.9 YPA with two touchdowns and two interceptions in four games.