NFL Week 15 Best Bets

At long last, I have broken my streak of 2-2 weeks. That has me just one game under .500 with a month left in the NFL regular season. Minnesota and Carolina covered with ease in the early game, but I was very fortunate to get a push in the Miami-NY Jets game. The Dolphins were never ahead of the number and needed a 52-yard field goal from Jason Sanders to tie the game at the end of regulation. Miami received the ball first in overtime and punched in a touchdown to get the victory and secure a push. That makes up for the fact that I lost my over for the Monday Night Football game by a few points. 

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YTD 26-27-1 ATS

Week 15 NFL Betting Odds and Picks

Over 47 in Houston Texans vs. Miami Dolphins

The Miami Dolphins have been one of the top offenses in the league since Tua Tagovailoa returned to the lineup. Miami has averaged 28.0 PPG over the last seven weeks, and the Dolphins have won four of their last five games. Tagovailoa has thrown for more than 300 rushing yards in each of the last three weeks, and that’s a good thing as the Dolphins’ leading rusher failed to run for more than 32 yards in each of those tilts.

Houston is fresh off a much-needed bye week. The Texans are still odds-on favorites per the NFL futures odds to win the AFC South, but they have had some issues in recent weeks. They have lost to lightweights like the New York Jets and Tennessee Titans to ensure that they will be the No. 4 seed if they do indeed win the division. This offense has scored at least 23 points in each of its last four games, so I expect this game to have at least 50 points.

Philadelphia Eagles -4 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Mike Tomlin continues to prove he is one of the best two or three coaches in the NFL today. Pittsburgh is 10-3 despite having a very inconsistent offense, and the Steelers are probably going back to the playoffs. However, this is a tough matchup for them as the offense will likely be without big play threat George Pickens for the second straight week. Russell Wilson completed just 15 of 26 passes for 158 yards and two touchdowns with Pickens out against Cleveland, so it’s likely this offense becomes very one-dimensional against a Philadelphia defense that ranks second in scoring defense (18.0 PPG) and first in total defense (4.7 YPP and 284.2 YPG).

This offense is finally healthy too with only Dallas Goedert missing. Saquon Barkley continues to make a play for NFL MVP, and the Eagles have a great offensive line blocking ahead of him. DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown keep defensive coordinators honest, and I think they will present enough of a threat even with Jalen Hurts’ struggles against the blitz. 

Denver Broncos -4 vs. Indianapolis Colts

I don’t understand why this line is so low. Denver is coming off a bye week and has won three straight games by at least nine points. The Broncos have been the team that has beaten bad teams all season, and Indianapolis is a bad team. The Colts have lost four of their last six games, and their two wins in that stretch were both by a single point. None of their wins have come by more than six points this season either, highlighting that this is a pretty marginal team. 

Under 44 in Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears

When these teams met a few weeks ago, there were 57 total points scored. Minnesota and Chicago combined for 750 total yards of offense, and there were a whopping 10 red zone trips.

It seems foolish to bet the Under given that fact, but Chicago is falling apart on both sides of the ball. The Bears have lost seven straight games after a 4-2 start, and Caleb Williams is dinking and dunking too much and then padding his stats in garbage time. Additionally, he has been sacked a whopping 27 times over the last five weeks.

Minnesota has won six straight games and blitzed Atlanta for 42 points last week. This offense is not as effective as you might think though. The pass game is rather boom or bust, and the Vikes are averaging just 4.1 YPC. An extra point closer to kickoff would be nice, but I’ll still take the Under now. 

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