NFL Week 10 Best Bets

I am edging closer to the .500 mark after a winning week in Week 9. My NFL betting plays went 3-1 ATS, and two of the winners were unimpeachable. The Los Angeles Chargers had little trouble dismantling the Cleveland Browns as a one-point road favorite, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers came very close to knocking off the unbeaten Kansas City Chiefs before falling in overtime. As for Minnesota, the Vikings only covered by a handful of points but thoroughly outplayed the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday Night Football. My only loss was the Over in the NFC West showdown between the Los Angeles Rams and the Seattle Seahawks. That game went under despite overtime, but there were a grand total of 790 yards of offense, and games usually go Over that have that many yards.

YTD 16-18 ATS

Week 10 NFL Betting Odds and Picks

Under 41.5 in Carolina Panthers vs. New York Giants

This will be the fourth NFL game in Germany. All three previous games went under the total, and none of those three games had more than 37 total points. Neither Carolina nor New York has been great on offense this season with the Panthers averaging a paltry 16.3 PPG (29th in the NFL) and the Giants averaging a miniscule 15.4 PPG (dead last in the NFL). Additionally, the combination of jet lag and field conditions tends to lead games across the pond to go Under. 

Pittsburgh Steelers +3 at Washington Commanders

This might be my favorite bet of the week. Mike Tomlin has led Pittsburgh to a win following its bye week in each of the last seven seasons. Furthermore, Tomlin is 25-6 against rookie quarterbacks over his career, and we saw how much he flummoxed Bo Nix back in Week 2. Denver could only muster two fourth quarter field goals as the Broncos were held to just 13 first downs and turned the ball over twice.

Jayden Daniels is the runaway favorite to be named NFL Offensive Rookie of the year per the football futures odds. Daniels has been great through the first half of his rookie campaign, but this is a tall task. Washington might be 7-2, but its best win so far is against 5-4 Arizona, and the Commanders have yet to beat another team with a winning record. This offense has been very fortunate when it comes to turnover luck too, and that tends to even out over the course of a season.   

Tennessee Titans +8 at Los Angeles Chargers

I don’t expect this to be a popular pick given just how bad Tennessee has looked at times on offense. The Titans rank either 27th or 28th in the NFL in most offensive categories as both Will Levis and Mason Rudolph have struggled under center. However, the Titans have been outstanding on defense this season. They rank first in total defense, allowing just 269.1 YPG, and opposing quarterbacks are averaging a scant 6.0 YPA.

This could very well be a lookahead game for the Los Angeles Chargers too. The Chargers have six consecutive games against teams that are currently 4-5 or better after this tilt with the Titans, so they might not be fully focused for the task at hand. 

Los Angeles Rams -2.5 vs. Miami Dolphins

Miami is in a must-win situation here at 2-6, but the Dolphins may have already seen all the air come out of their balloon. They have lost three consecutive games by a total of 10 points, and that’s absolutely demoralizing considering their schedule the rest of the way. While the Dolphins could go on a little run over the next three weeks with Las Vegas and New England on the schedule, their next four opponents after that are Green Bay, New York, Houston, and San Francisco.

On the other side of the ball, the Los Angeles Rams have bounced back nicely after a 1-4 start. They have won three straight games after Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua got healthy, and they seem to have figured out the defense. Rookie Jared Verse is the odds-on favorite to be named NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year due to his ability to get to the passer, and that gives me enough faith to back the hosts here.