Get ready for the NFL Divisional Round with our best bets! Find expert advice and strategies to enhance your betting experience this playoff season.
It was not a great start to the postseason for my NFL Playoff Picks. While Buffalo easily covered the number against Denver despite allowing a touchdown on the opening drive, my other three picks lost. Pittsburgh never had a chance to stay within the number against Baltimore as the Ravens were up 21-0 at halftime and never looked back. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers lost a thriller to the Washington Commanders on Sunday Night Football, and the Minnesota Vikings totally laid an egg in Arizona against the Los Angeles Rams. Minnesota trailed by 21 points at halftime as Sam Darnold had one of his worst performances of the season.
Let’s bounce back in the Divisional Round. There are only four games, but I do feel like there is a right side in all four tilts.
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Regular Season Record 36-33-1 ATSPlayoff Record 1-3 ATS
NFL Divisional Round Betting Odds and Picks
Houston Texans +9 at Kansas City Chiefs
No one liked the Houston Texans last week, but they were able to knock off the Los Angeles Chargers at home. The Texans’ secondary was great, completely flummoxing Justin Herbert into multiple mistakes, and that’s something we saw often throughout the regular season. Jared Goff had his worst game of the season against the Houston defense, and Josh Allen completed just 30% of his passes against the Texans when they met back in October.
Patrick Mahomes led the Kansas City Chiefs to a 15-2 record this season, but they have been vulnerable. They never pulled away from the Texans when they met in Arrowhead Stadium a few weeks ago, and Mahomes averaged under 6.0 YPA in that game. I don’t think Houston will pull off the upset, but the Texans have what it takes to stay within the number.
Detroit Lions -9.5 vs. Washington Commanders
The Detroit Lions were the most impressive team in the NFC this season. Detroit continually shook off injuries to its defense, and the offense has proven it can score on anyone. The Lions have scored at least 31 points in each of their last five games, so I believe they will have a lot of success against a Washington defense that needs to put pressure on the quarterback to be successful.
Jayden Daniels has had a great season, but the wear and tear is going to bother him here. Detroit will be able to make this offense one-dimensional, and Daniels won’t be able to keep pace with the Lions offense. I see Detroit putting up 34+ points in this game.
Los Angeles Rams +6 at Philadelphia Eagles
It was impressive to see the Los Angeles Rams overcome adversity by beating the Minnesota Vikings in Arizona on Monday night. Matthew Stafford was able to have enough success even though he completed just one pass to Cooper Kupp, but the real story for the Rams has been the emergence of this young defense. Jared Verse, Kamren Kinchens, and Braden Fiske have been phenomenal as rookies, immediately proving themselves to be leaders.
Meanwhile, Philadelphia was unimpressive in the Wild Card Round. Jalen Hurts has thrown for 155 yards or less in three of his last five playoff games, and he hasn’t been that impressive of a runner. Saquon Barkley has helped this offense paper over a lot of issues, but the Rams have a real chance to win this game if they can bottle him up.
Buffalo Bills +1 vs. Baltimore Ravens
This is the most anticipated game of the week by a mile. Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson will finish 1-2 in the NFL MVP voting, and both Buffalo and Baltimore believe they can finally knock off Kansas City this season. Allen has been phenomenal all year despite not having an elite receiver, while Jackson has been even better with Derrick Henry as a backfield partner.
Baltimore did smash Buffalo when these teams met earlier in the season, but I think it’s a bit much to have the Bills listed as a home underdog here. We have seen the Ravens’ secondary really struggle against elite quarterbacks, and Allen has what it takes to shred this defense through the air.
