Monday Night Football - Washington Commanders at Cincinnati Bengals Odds and Picks

Week 3 of the 2024 NFL season will close out with the Cincinnati Bengals playing host to the Washington Commanders. Cincinnati is a popular pick as the Bengals are currently 0-2, and they looked much better in their last-minute loss to Kansas City than they did in their home opener against New England. Meanwhile, Washington became the first team ever to defeat a team that scored three touchdowns without scoring a touchdown themselves last week, so no one is giving the Commanders much of a chance.

Week 3 Washington Commanders at Cincinnati Bengals

Washington Commanders +7.5

Cincinnati Bengals -7.5

Total 47

Cincinnati was originally a seven-point favorite by the opening Week 3 NFL betting odds, but bettors quickly took the Bengals at that number moving the spread over 7. The Bengals were favored by as much as 8.5 points before Washington money started to come in, and this number shouldn’t really vacillate before kickoff. As for the total, it has dropped 1.5 points from where we say it a few days ago.

Washington Commanders Overview

No. 2 overall pick Jayden Daniels was given the keys to this offense, and Washington is happy to let the 2023 Heisman Trophy winner learn on his feet. Daniels is more experienced than most rookie quarterbacks and will turn 24 later this year, but it’s clear that he is still adapting to the speed at the next level. Although he is a great runner, Daniels is holding onto the ball too long and has already been sacked seven times. However, he has yet to turn the ball over and is averaging 5.1 YPC on the ground.

Three of the Commanders’ top four receivers are not wide receivers, highlighting that Daniels is checking down a lot. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, but it also limits the ability of this offense to stretch the field and attack secondaries over the top. Washington does have a playmaker that can do that in Terry McLaurin, but the Commanders’ top target over each of the last five seasons has just eight receptions for 39 yards off of 12 targets.

Despite pouring draft capital into the defensive line for the last half-decade, Washington does not have a good defense or pass rush. Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen can stop the run, and Bobby Wagner still has something left in the tank, but the rush ends are weak and the secondary isn’t good.

Cincinnati Bengals Overview

Joe Burrow had a dud of a game in Week 1, but he looked much better last week against Kansas City. Burrow completed 23 of 36 passes for 258 yards and two touchdowns, and he didn’t turn the ball over. Ja’Marr Chase played much better too after concerns that his frustration over not receiving a new contract would affect his play, and veteran tight end Mike Gesicki showed that he might be able to thrive in this offense.

Cincinnati will need to take steps to improve its ground game. The Bengals lost Joe Mixon to Houston in the offseason, and Zack Moss hasn’t been as electric as the primary running back. Moss is averaging just 3.7 YPC through two games, and he’s not the same threat that Mixon was in the passing game.

This defensive line is seriously banged up in the early going. Three players are already on injured reserve, and three others are questionable to play on Monday Night Football including starting defensive tackles Sheldon Rankins and B.J. Hill. Standout safety Vonn Bell is questionable too according to the most recent injury report. 

Monday Night Football Prediction

While Cincinnati will likely win this game, the Bengals won’t cover the number. There are too many concerns with the ground game, and the defense has some question marks too. Burrow and the Bengals will be content to score their first victory of the season, but this game could feature a backdoor special. Daniels will be dinking and dunking throughout the evening, yet his safety with the ball will keep the game from getting out of hand as turnovers really plague young quarterbacks in these situations.

Final Score: Cincinnati 24, Washington 19