Monday Night Football - Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Rams Odds and Picks

Many pundits left the Los Angeles Rams for dead after Week 5. The Rams were 1-4, and their 14-point comeback over San Francisco was looking like an aberration. However, Sean McVay righted the ship during the bye week. The Rams have since won three straight games and knocked off other playoff contenders like Minnesota and Seattle during that stretch. Now, they will be facing another team that was seemingly left for dead when they take on the Miami Dolphins on Monday Night Football.

Week 10 Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Rams

Miami Dolphins +1

Los Angeles Rams -1

Total 50

Bettors have slowly moved the line in favor of the visitors over the course of the week. The opening NFL betting odds installed the Rams as a 2.5-point home favorite. That number has since crept downwards, and the Dolphins could be favored by kickoff. 

Miami Dolphins Overview

Tua Tagovailoa is back on the field after suffering a scary concussion in Week 2’s loss to Buffalo on Thursday Night Football. There is a collective holding of breath whenever a pass rusher comes barreling his way at this point, but he has made it clear that he wants to keep playing football. Miami is certainly better with Tagovailoa on the field than the Dolphins are with either Tyler Huntley or Skylar Thompson, and that has led to the team nearly pulling out wins over Arizona and Buffalo in each of the last two weeks.

Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are let loose with Tagovailoa on the field. Hill has 20 receptions for 306 yards and a touchdown in the four games that Tagovailoa has started compared to just 14 catches for 140 yards in the four games started by other quarterbacks. The same is true with Waddle as three of his four best games and his lone touchdown reception came with Tagovailoa under center.

Miami’s defense has done well to keep the Dolphins in games even with the offense struggling to move the chains. The Dolphins are allowing just 303.1 YPG (7th in the NFL), and they have one of the best secondaries in the league despite having the third-worst sack rate. Jalen Ramsey continues to play at an All-Pro level, while Jordan Poyer has given the team a big boost at safety.

Los Angeles Rams Overview

Matthew Stafford might be on his last legs. Stafford’s play has clearly gone downhill over the past couple seasons, but he will forever be beloved in Los Angeles for leading the Rams to their first Super Bowl ring. He is completing 65.9% of his passes for just 1,969 yards (7.1 YPA) with nine touchdowns and six interceptions through eight games.

Stafford hasn’t had standout receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua for most of those games, but Kupp and Nacua haven’t been at their best either. Kupp has 34 receptions for 302 yards and two touchdowns off a whopping 49 targets, while Nacua currently has 12 catches for 152 yards in three games.

The ground game has been very ineffective although Kyren Williams has been a decent runner. Williams has run for just 602 yards (3.7 YPC), but he does have eight touchdowns as the Rams love to feed him in the red zone. The Rams rank second-to-last in yards per carry because the offensive line has not played well, and to make matters worse, starting right tackle Rob Havenstein is out this week, and right guard Kevin Dotson is questionable.

Aaron Donald’s offseason retirement created some big problems through the first quarter of the season, but the Rams have rebounded around a new defensive standout. First-round pick Jared Verse has really come along, providing a spark to a defense that was in desperate need of a new playmaker. The secondary still has a hard time stopping the pass, but they are at least getting after the quarterback now.

Monday Night Football Prediction

Everything seems to point to Miami in this game, but I believe the Dolphins are already looking towards next year. Miami is 2-6, and the last two weeks had to have been gutting for a team that went 11-6 in 2023. 

Final Score: Los Angeles 27, Miami 23