Monday Night Football - Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos Odds and Picks

The Denver Broncos would earn the last playoff spot in the AFC if the season ended today. Denver is 7-5 and two games ahead of the Miami Dolphins and the Indianapolis Colts with five games left to play this season. The Broncos have taken care of business against every team they’ve needed to beat in order to be in this position, as all of their losses have come against teams with a winning record. That bodes well for their Monday Night Football showdown with the Cleveland Browns. 

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Week 13 Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos

Cleveland Browns +5.5Denver Broncos -5.5Total 41.5

There has been no real line movement in this game. The Denver Broncos are still 5.5-point favorites, and that’s where the opening NFL betting odds pegged this contest. The total has slightly risen from 41 to 41.5 points. 

Cleveland Browns Overview

It’s been a rough year for the Cleveland Browns. Deshaun Watson erased any doubt that he might not be the player to fix Cleveland’s long-time woes at the quarterback position. Watson completed just 63.4% of his passes for 1,148 yards (5.3 YPA) with five touchdowns and three interceptions coupled with 33 sacks in seven games before suffering a season-ending injury. Jameis Winston has made the team more competitive since taking over under center, but everyone knows just how inconsistent Winston has bene in his career.

Nick Chubb has not been the same running back after suffering a season-ending injury in 2023. Chubb is averaging just 3.0 YPC since returning to the field, and he has not registered a run longer than 15 yards in five games. Jerome Ford fared somewhat better earlier in the season, but Ford has just 13 carries for 48 yards in his last four games. 

This has made Cleveland the worst offense in the league. The Browns rank dead last at just 4.5 yards per play, and they convert under 27% of the time on third down. That’s the worst number we have seen in at least 25 years. Dustin Hopkins has struggled to hit field goals and extra points too, further limiting what this offense can do. 

Cleveland’s defense is better than you might think for a unit that has been left out to dry all season. Myles Garrett played a big role in the Browns’ upset win over the Pittsburgh Steelers last week, and the secondary is decent even though two starters are questionable to play on Monday.   

Denver Broncos Overview

Rookie Bo Nix has been excellent in his last five games. Nix has completed 70.2% of his passes for 1,302 yards (7.5 YPA) with 11 touchdowns and a single interception in that stretch. Head coach Sean Payton has been giddy about the rookie’s development, and it looks like Denver might finally have a franchise quarterback again. Nix has been a dangerous runner too, averaging 4.7 YPC with four rushing touchdowns with his legs.

Courtland Sutton has been Nix’s top receiver, but rookie Devaughn Vele is turning a lot of heads of late. Vele is a seventh-round draft pick out of Utah that has 19 receptions for 224 yards and a touchdown in his last five games.

The run game has been disappointing. Javonte Williams has just 445 yards and three touchdowns this season, and he is averaging a paltry 3.7 YPC. Williams doesn’t have a run longer than 20 yards in 120 carries, and he has two lost fumbles as well.

Denver’s defense is outstanding. The Broncos lead the league in allowing 4.7 yards per play, and they are only giving up 16.8 PPG despite having played some very good teams. The run defense has been great, but the pass defense is fantastic with Pat Surtain II locking down half the field. This pass rush is strong too with Nik Bonitto currently tied for third in the NFL with 10 sacks. 

Monday Night Football Prediction

Denver and the under should be strong plays here. The Broncos will flummox Winston, while Denver does enough on the ground to bleed the clock. I see Denver grinding out a win in a low-scoring game. 

Final Score: Denver 23, Cleveland 13

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