College Football Playoff National Championship Game - Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish Same Game Parlay Pick

Not many people are giving the Notre Dame Fighting Irish much of a chance against the Ohio State Buckeyes in the College Football Playoff National Championship Game on Monday night. Ohio State is more than a touchdown favorite per the current CFB betting odds as the Buckeyes have knocked off Tennessee, Oregon, and Texas on its way to this point. 

Notre Dame is a live underdog though. Marcus Freeman has the Fighting Irish playing very well on defense, and they have defeated Indiana, Georgia, and Penn State to get to this point. This is not one of the Brian Kelly teams that is going to look completely outmatched when it takes the field, so don’t be surprised if this is anyone’s game until late in the fourth quarter. 

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Initially, Ohio State opened as a 9.5-point favorite in this game. However, we have seen bettors jump on Notre Dame at this price, moving the line down to 8.5 points on Monday night. The total has risen slightly from 45.5 to 46, but most observers expect a relatively low scoring game since Jim Knowles and Al Golden might be the two best defensive coordinators in the country. 

Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish SGP

There’s no denying that Ohio State is the more talented team here. The Buckeyes have a load of NFL prospects at running back and wide receiver. TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins are both excellent runners that have combined to find the end zone 22 times this year, and senior Emeka Egbuka is expected to be a first-round pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. True freshman Jeremiah Smith is the most electrifying player in the country, averaging 17.3 YPR, and he seems like a lock to be a Top 5 pick when he decides to play on Sunday.

However, Will Howard has had some ups and downs under center. Howard hasn’t been as reliable of a runner as he was at Kansas State, and he has not always made the right decision as a passer. That hasn’t turned out to bite Ohio State many times this season, but it could really affect them against a Notre Dame team that is excellent at disguising coverages.

Notre Dame ranks second in scoring defense (14.3 PPG) and second in pass defense (5.8 YPA). Opposing quarterbacks are completing a scant 50.7% of their passes against this unit, and the Fighting Irish are excellent at forcing mistakes. They forced Drew Allar into what proved to be the game-turning interception in the Orange Bowl, and they can force Howard into making some bad throws.

This Fighting Irish offense is going to be very conservative. Although Notre Dame was one of the highest-scoring offenses in the regular season, much of that was due to the quality of its schedule. This is a team that doesn’t want to turn the ball over, so they won’t take a lot of risks with Riley Leonard under center.

Instead, they will run the rock with Jeremiyah Love, Jadarian Price, and Leonard getting the bulk of the carries. Love is one of the most talented running backs in the country, averaging 7.1 YPC with 17 rushing touchdowns. Price was excellent in spelling Love, averaging 6.3 YPC, while Leonard was constantly able to move the chains and keep Notre Dame ahead on down and distance.

Ohio State has an excellent defense, but I believe Notre Dame might be able to slowly grind them down over the course of the game. Leonard can get tough yards with his legs, and that’s something the Buckeyes haven’t had to face much this year.

If Notre Dame can disguise its coverages enough to confuse Will Howard, the Fighting Irish stand a real chance of winning this game outright. They can lean on the clock and slowly grind out their opponent, keeping this a one-score game throughout the evening. I’m not bold enough to call for an outright upset, but I do think the Fighting Irish will keep it within the number.  

OHIO STATE BUCKEYES VS. NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH UNDER 46

NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH +8.5