I posted a winning week in Week 5, as my picks went 3-2 ATS. We took last week off due to some issues in the aftermath of Hurricane Ian, but we are ready to get back at it in Week 7 and take a winning record at the halfway mark of the season.
I posted a winning week in Week 5, as my picks two weeks ago went 3-2 ATS. Wake Forest won outright as a touchdown underdog against Florida State, and Texas had no problem in an 18-point win over West Virginia. Nebraska proved the doubters wrong with a two-touchdown win over Indiana too, and those teams ensured I had a winning week. Unfortunately, Air Force only squeaked past Navy, and Boise State and San Diego State went over the total thanks to special teams and defense, making it just a marginal winning week.
We took last week off due to some issues in the aftermath of Hurricane Ian, but we are ready to get back at it in Week 7 and take a winning record into the halfway mark of the season.
YTD 11-13-1 ATS
CFB Week 5 Selections
Tennessee +7 vs. Alabama
Usually, it’s not a good idea to bet the biggest games on the board, because those have the least value. However, Alabama is being given far too much credit based on what Nick Saban has done during his time in Tuscaloosa, and not enough attention is being paid to the struggles the Crimson Tide have had in 2022. Alabama squeaked past Texas in Austin and probably would have lost to the Longhorns if Quinn Ewers hadn’t been hurt. The Crimson Tide almost lost to Texas A&M at home last week, and they will be in real trouble if Bryce Young can’t play due to his shoulder injury. Tennessee has an excellent offense with Hendon Hooker under center, and Alabama’s defense has been a bit shaky at times.
Temple +24 at Central Florida
It would have been great to get +28 here, as the line opened that high on Sunday. However, the number moved all the way down to 22.5 at one point, so I’m happy to roll with Temple +24.
To be frank, the Owls aren’t good. They have the worst offense in the AAC, and they aren’t going to have much success on this front against UCF. However, the Knights have a very predictable offense, and they aren’t nearly as explosive in the passing game given John Rhys Plumlee’s inaccuracy. The Owls can stop the run, and that will enable them to keep this game within the number.
Kansas +9 at Oklahoma
Lance Leipold and the Kansas Jayhawks are the real deal. Kansas was able to stay within the number against TCU last week even though starting quarterback Jalon Daniels was hurt, and Jason Bean is a backup that can get the job done if need be for the Jayhawks. He nearly led Kansas to a win and threw for four touchdown passes after replacing Daniels in the second half last week, so there’s plenty of reason to be optimistic about Kansas against a subpar Oklahoma defense.
Mississippi State -4 at Kentucky
Mike Leach has a history of putting it all together in Year 3, and that has continued in Starkville. Mississippi State is 5-1 with its only loss coming on the road against LSU, and the Bulldogs have hammered Texas A&M and Arkansas in consecutive weeks. Will Rogers has thrown for over 2,200 yards and 22 touchdowns halfway through the season, and he is a much better passer than Kentucky’s Will
Levis. The Wildcats have been significantly overrated since the start of the season, and they never should have been ranked in the top ten.
East Carolina -5 vs. Memphis
Although the Memphis Tigers are 4-2, they just aren’t a good football team. Their four wins are all against mediocre (at best) opponents, and they are coming off an absolutely brutal home loss to Houston last week. They have the 81st ranked defense in the country according to SP+, and Holton Ahlers will be able to shred this unit. Ahlers is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country, and he has thrown for 1,820 yards and 16 touchdowns in six games. He is a threat to make things happen with his legs too, so Memphis could easily lose by double digits in a hostile environment this weekend.
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