Are you ready for Week 5 College Football Picks? It has been a slow start to the season with the NCAA Football picks, but we'll get it going soon. Let's look at five college football picks for this week.
After another losing week, I’m down to 8-11-1 ATS on the season. I was right on with my pick of Boise State and UTEP to struggle scoring, and I nailed the Kansas State upset of Oklahoma on Saturday night. However, Michigan was unable to cover the number against Maryland, and I was dead wrong about Clemson and Wake Forest playing a low scoring game. If you’ve faded me to this point, congratulations on your gains, but we are going to claw our way back into the black soon enough.
YTD 8-11-1 ATS
CFB Week 5 Selections
Boise State vs. San Diego State Under 39.5
For the second straight week, I am betting a Boise State game to finish Under the total. The Broncos have been abysmal on offense, and it might get worse before it gets better after the team fired its offensive coordinator and subsequently lost starting quarterback Hank Bachmeier to the transfer portal. Dirk Koetter will be the new offensive coordinator, but he has a one-dimensional quarterback in freshman Taylen Green. While Green is an excellent runner because of his frame, he is a major work in progress as a passer.
No team has a worse passing attack than San Diego State. The Aztecs are worse at throwing the football than even the academies, as this team is averaging 3.4 YPA. Veteran quarterback Braxton Burmeister has really struggled under center, but he has been better than the team’s other two options, so he continues to get the start. San Diego State is averaging 5.8 YPC and is pretty one-dimensional itself, making this likely to be a low scoring affair.
Wake Forest +7 at Florida State
Florida State is ranked in the AP Top 25 for the first time since 2018 after a 4-0 start. However, the Seminoles have not been all that impressive this season, and they could have lost to both LSU and Louisville. This offensive line still has a lot of issues although the Seminoles are averaging 5.5 YPC, and Jordan Travis still needs some polish as a passer.
Meanwhile, Wake Forest has an offense that can put points on the scoreboard. Sam Hartman is one of the nation’s best quarterbacks, and he lit up Clemson last week. Hartman is completing 64% of his passes for 9.6 YPA with 13 touchdowns and two interceptions. The Demon Deacons run a slow mesh that gives opposing defenses fits, and the Seminoles do not have the linebackers to effectively stop this offense.
Nebraska -4.5 vs. Indiana
This is Nebraska’s best chance of winning a Big Ten game this season. The Cornhuskers aren’t as bad as you might think given how many times they lost by one score under Scott Frost, while the Indiana football program is a mess. It certainly hurts the Hoosiers to see Michael Penix tearing up opposing defenses with the Washington Huskies, as Missouri transfer Connor Bazelak has largely just dinked and dunked underneath without a ton of success. The Hoosiers are ranked outside of the top 70 in Offensive SP+ and Defensive SP+, and the Cornhuskers have the potential to throttle them on Saturday.
Air Force -14 vs. Navy
It’s typically dangerous to lay double digits against a triple option team given their ability to control the ball, but Navy is one of the least dangerous offenses in the country in 2022. The Midshipmen rank 123rd in Offensive SP+, and they could only score a combined 20 points against Delaware and Memphis. Air Force is used to stopping the triple option, and the Falcons have outscored the Midshipmen 63-10 in their last two meetings.
Texas -8 vs. West Virginia
The Texas hate is a little too much right now. Yes, the Longhorns are 2-2, but Bill Connelly’s SP+ rates this team as one of the best in the nation. They are significantly more talented than West Virginia on both sides of the ball, and the Mountaineers are being overrated after blowing out a bad Virginia Tech team last week. Quinn Ewers may be ready to make his return after missing the last two weeks due to injury, and that will give this offense a huge jolt.
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