It is College Football Championship Game Saturday with a number of high profile games. Let's look at five games in college football picks and finish the season strongly.
Going 2-3 ATS on Rivalry Weekend was brutal considering we nailed our two wins. Texas A&M upset LSU as a double-digit underdog per the college football betting odds, and Louisiana-Lafayette hammered Texas State by 28 points as a short road favorite. Unfortunately, our three losses were by a combined four points. Florida State only defeated rival Florida by seven points on Black Friday, USC and Notre Dame went over the total by a measly point, and Alabama failed to cover against Auburn by a half-point.
That doomed us to a losing regular season, but there is some value on Conference Championship Week.
YTD 23-30-2 ATS
CFB Conference Championship Week Selections
Kansas State +2.5 vs. TCU
Although TCU is undefeated this season, there’s a reason that the Horned Frogs are only a slight favorite against Kansas State in the Big 12 Championship Game. TCU is rather fortunate to be unbeaten as the Horned Frogs have faced backup quarterbacks in a considerable portion of their games, and five of their 12 wins were by one score. They did beat Kansas State in Fort Worth earlier this season, but the Wildcats have looked much better over the second half of the season with Will Howard replacing Adrian Martinez under center.
Whereas Martinez is completing 64.1% of his passes for 1,261 yards (6.9 YPA) with six touchdowns and an interception with 12 sacks, Howard is completing 62.9% of his passes for 1,224 yards (9.3 YPA) with 13 touchdowns and two interceptions with just three sacks. Howard isn’t the same mobile threat that Martinez can be with the ball in his hands, but he is a much better passer. TCU’s defense is ranked 31st in SP+, so the Wildcats can put some points on the board here.
Toledo -2.5 vs. Ohio
If Kurtis Rourke were healthy, Ohio would be the play in the MAC Championship Game. Unfortunately, Rourke tore his ACL two weeks ago. He was named the MAC Offensive Player of the Year and MAC MVP earlier this week, and this offense is a lot different with C.J. Harris under center. Harris is completing less than 50% of his passes.
Toledo has dropped two straight games prior to the MAC Championship Game, but the Rockets are expecting Dequan Finn to play this week. Finn has dealt with a foot injury over the last month, and that really affected his performance last week against Western Michigan. His potential is too much to ignore even if he isn’t 100%, as he is the type of dual-threat player that can take over a game.
Troy -8 vs. Coastal Carolina
Grayson McCall was named the Sun Belt Player of the Year for the third straight season earlier this week. However, McCall is injured and hasn’t taken the field since November 3. Coastal Carolina has looked considerably more pedestrian without its star quarterback, and the oddsmakers don’t expect him to suit up on Saturday. Jarrett Guest isn’t nearly the same passing threat, and Troy’s defense is ranked 8th in Defensive SP+, so the Trojans should be able to completely shut this offense down.
Tulane -3.5 vs. UCF
Once again, a quarterback injury is playing a major part in a play for this week. John Rhys Plumlee has been dealing with a hamstring injury, and he tweaked it in UCF’s victory over USF last Saturday. UCF’s offense completely stalled out after Plumlee was replaced by Mikey Keene, allowing the Bulls to nearly complete the biggest comeback win of the season. Plumlee is obviously not 100%, and that gives Tulane an edge in the rematch between these teams, as Mikey Keene’s skillset would play into the strengths of the Green Wave.
LSU +17 vs. Georgia
It’s clear that the defending national champions are the team to beat once more, but 17 points is a big number to cover in a conference title game. LSU laid an egg against Texas A&M last week, but the Tigers know how to grind a game out and keep it close. The defense has been better than anyone expected, ranking 23rd in SP+, and the offense has improved under Jayden Daniels every week. As good as Georgia has been this season, Stetson Bennett is still limited as a passer, and that makes covering big numbers against good teams an iffy proposition.
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