North Carolina vs. Kansas Title Game Betting Odds and Prediction

Would you believe it if I told you the North Carolina Tar Heels have been dogged by linemakers in three of their last four NCAA tournament games? If not for No. 15 St. Peter’s locking horns with them in the Sweet 16, it likely would’ve been four straight times! Be that as it may, Hubert Davis has got UNC on the precipice of locking up the seventh national championship in program history. All that stands in their way is a Kansas Jayhawks team looking to take home the fourth title in its esteemed history. The betting market looks to be of the belief that Kansas cruises to the win and cover at online sportsbooks with former coach Roy Williams rooting the Tar Heels on from the stands. Though I bleed crimson and blue, I’m not buying it. UNC has been playing too good a brand of basketball to go down without a fight, so I’ll gladly take the points with North Carolina and force my alma mater to prove me wrong. In the end, it’ll be a win-win situation for me. Either the bankroll fattens up, or I get drunk into the wee hours of the morning celebrating another national championship ;)

Betting Odds Analysis

The Pomeroy Ratings don’t have these teams in the same stratosphere. Kansas currently clocks in as the No. 3 ranked team in the country with UNC checking in all the way down at No. 16. Though the Heels took down Baylor, UCLA, and Duke to get here, Pomeroy still has all three of those teams ranked ahead of them. Like the late, great Rodney Dangerfield, they continue to get no respect! Kansas hit the board as 4.5-point favorites to win this game. They were bet up to as high as -5 and as low as -3.5 before the number to beat settled in at -4 with 55 percent of the bets and 64 percent of the money going the way of the Jayhawks. The O/U opened 153 but has since been bet down to 152 regardless of 65 percent of the bets and nearly 70 percent of the money expecting points to dent the scoreboard. UNC’s won and covered five straight in the underdog role, while Kansas stands 6-1 SU and ATS the last seven times it laid up to five points.

North Carolina Tar Heels

Though UNC gets absolutely nothing from its bench, the starting five has more than made up for the lack of production with Brady Manek (18.7 PPG), Caleb Love (17.1 PPG), Armando Bacot (15.1 PPG, 15.6 RPG), and RJ Davis (13.0 PPG, 5.0 APG) leading the charge. Love and Davis just put the team on their back from an offensive standpoint versus the Blue Devils in combining for 46 points, 11 rebounds, and five assists with Manek struggling mightily (14 points). Bacot followed up his 22 boards versus St. Peter’s with another 21 against the Dookies, but did suffer what looked to be a nasty ankle injury late in the game. If not 100 percent or simply unable to go, UNC is going to need to get even more from its excelled trio and I believe they’ll be up for the challenge.

Kansas Jayhawks

Saturday’s 81-65 handling of the Villanova Wildcats was certainly a sight for sore eyes for the many of Jayhawk Nation forced to sit and watch helplessly as Kansas got throttled by Jay Wright back in the 2018 Final Four. You could tell right from the outset that the Jayhawks were dead set on making amends for that brutal defeat with the offense going off from beyond the arc to immediately set the tone of the game. Ochai Agbaji held the torch early on draining all five of his attempted 3-pointers to help lead KU to a commanding 11-point halftime lead. Though Nova made things interesting in the second half, the steady play of David McCormack down low (25 points, 9 rebounds) and another double-double from Jalen Wilson allowed for Kansas to avenge the defeat in style.

The Wager

While some might say I’m chasing after fading Kansas and it rubbed my face in it against the Wildcats, North Carolina has the pieces to keep this game competitive all the way through. More so than Nova who was without an integral piece at both ends of the floor in Justin Moore. While Bacot’s ankle injury is concerning, I can’t help but think the team doctor’s will find a way to get him comfortable to play then keep track of him all game long to make sure he can continue playing the 32+ minutes averaged throughout this tournament. If no worse for the wear, North Carolina will be in this one all the way through. The Tar Heels never say die mentality has been a joy to watch since the tail end of the regular season, and I foresee Manek and company making the Jayhawks earn this one should they be lucky enough to see it all the way through. This should be an exciting conclusion to an otherwise blah tourney!

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