Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox MLB Odds

With the Yankees running away with the AL East the rest of the division is competing for a playoff spot. A run that saw the Sox win 12 of 16 games helped move them into second place, though they still trail the Yankees by double digit games. The three teams behind New York are currently the three wild card holders in the new expanded playoff scenario. The Tampa Bay Rays look to improve their standing when they visit Boston for a nationally televised TBS game on Tuesday. The Rays took two of three when the clubs met in April with two of them decided by one run and all three playing below the total.

The AL East matchup between the Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox is set for 7:10 p.m. ET on Tuesday, July 5, 2022. The game will air live on TBS from Fenway Park. 

MLB Betting Odds at BookMaker.eu

Odds Analysis

The Rays are at it again making things difficult for the big boys in the division. For a small market team lacking the talent of other clubs, they’ve done a remarkable job stringing together four straight winning seasons and three consecutive playoff appearances. While their winning percentage is lower than what it’s been the previous four seasons, the Rays are still winning 54 percent of their games. Unless the Yankees collapse and another team catches fire, Tampa, Boston and Toronto are playing for a wild card. With those spots currently occupied by AL East teams, head to head games take on another meaning.

Their record and recent success is sign that Tampa is legitimate. Another sign is at the betting window. Despite winning 40 of their first 74 games, the Rays are in the red on the moneyline, the only team to be down as much as they are and have a winning record. All the damage has taken place on the road. Tuesday’s game is smack dab in the middle of an 11-game trip that opened with five games in Toronto. The road has not been kind to the Rays with just one series win in the last six before the showdown with the Jays.

Just to give you an idea of what the Sox and the rest of the division are up against, Boston went 20-6 in June for a healthy .769 winning percentage, yet they still lost ground on the Yankees. The Sox took advantage of the schedule winning 10 of 13 straight games against teams from the AL West not based in Houston. For a team that many thought had suspect pitching, the staff has been beyond good with two of their best arms, Chris Sale and Garrett Whitlock, nearing a return. The staff ranks among the top-6 in MLB in ERA and WHIP.

The Sox haven’t had a lot of success against the Rays recently going 8-11 last year losing the season series for a third straight year. They also dropped two of the first three games this year. They succeeded in the most import series, though, winning last year’s ALDS 3-1. They did have a winning home record taking five of the nine regular season meetings and both playoff games at Fenway Park.

Probable Pitchers

Trying to figure out Tampa’s rotation often requires a slide rule, calculator and advanced degree. Though an opener had been used previously, the Rays took the experiment to another level in 2018 and still employ the concept. And with the club playing five games in four days in Toronto before this series, we’ll see how many arms are left to throw a baseball. The likely candidate is lefty Jeffrey Springs (3-2, 2.25 ERA), as long as he returns to the team in time. He was recently granted leave for a family emergency. Springs has been effective in his dual role boasting a 1.00 WHIP and 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. His last nine appearances have all been starts going 2-2 with a 2.68 ERA in 47 innings. The team is 7-2 in those games. He faced the Sox in April tossing two hitless innings in relief in a game Tampa won 3-2 in extras.

Boston’s good luck charm Nick Pivetta (8-5, 3.23 ERA) is in line to get the start. Just 16 starts into the season he can match his season career-high in wins with his next victory. Four of his losses came in his first five starts when he was as bad as the team. He pitched to a 7.84 ERA giving up 25 hits in 20.2 innings in those outings. Pivetta turned things around since then going 8-1 with a 1.95 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 74 innings over his last 11 starts. The Sox won his last four starts and are 9-1 in Pivetta’s previous 10 outings.

Rays at Red Sox MLB Odds Pick

This is a tough spot for the Rays playing a hot team and division rival on the road. That along would make it difficult, but playing five games in four days in Toronto before heading to Beantown only adds to the misery. One thing we’ve learned is to never count the Rays out, but this brutal stretch would take down even the best teams.

MLB Odds Prediction: Boston Red Sox / UNDER